We also find a statistical tie in the race to be the new Mayor of the North East. Labour’s Kim McGuinness leads Independent Jamie Driscoll by 2. The poll indicates higher propensity to vote by Driscoll supporters is what is keeping this race close and a squeeze of Tory voters. pic.twitter.com/HxNZTBoKLT

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) April 28, 2024

And finally in Greater Manchester we have Andy Burnham on course for an easy win, with the potential for the Conservatives to slip back and potentially a higher Reform UK vote. pic.twitter.com/u8V75Cqh4v

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) April 28, 2024

Will do some individual threads on the races as we’ve also been doing focus group work along side! But in the meantime tables and some of those insights here https://t.co/mXGfAxvmIQ

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) April 28, 2024

For the Tories and Sunak this coming Thursday it was expected to be like the first day of The Battle of the Somme yet it might not be so bloody for them thank to the local Mayors.

This poll showins Andy Street leading and today’s Sunday Times reports

Labour claims to have conceded defeat in the Tees Valley. Party officials say they are pulling activists out and redeploying them in the West Midlands, where the future of Street, the Tory mayor who is running a highly personal campaign devoid of Conservative branding, is on a knife edge. Labour has been hamstrung by the dire performance of the Labour-run Birmingham council and by opposition to Sir Keir Starmer’s stance on the war in Gaza.

“Houchen will win,” a Labour source said. “We are pulling people out. It’s 50-50 in the West Midlands.”

Back in 1990 Mrs Thatcher managed to spin the 1990 locals as a good result for the Tories by focussing on the Tory holds the flagship councils of Westminster and Wandsworth and I wonder if Sunak will try a similar trick.

Right now you can back Andy Street to win at 2.22 on Betfair, modesty prevents me from naming the PBer who tipped Andy Street to win at 4.0

TSE