8% for the Greens seems too high to me (and it's not just with Opinium… YouGov and People Polling also tend to report quite high numbers).

— Will Jennings (@drjennings) March 23, 2024

This rather highlights the tension between pollsters' 'predictive' adjustments (such as reallocation of DKs) and these sorts of dynamics.

— Will Jennings (@drjennings) March 23, 2024

I am working on the assumption that the Scottish Greens will stand down in most Scottish constituencies as not to split the secessionist vote (in 2019 they stood in 22 out of 59 Scottish constituencies) but in England & Wales I expect the Greens to put up something similar to the 472 candidates they stood in 2019 so there will be plenty of opportunities to vote Green but will they vote Green at the election?

I think with the unpopularity of the Tories the Greens will get squeezed during the campaign which may well be suboptimal for the Tories. with Caroline Lucas standing down I do expect the Greens to win zero seats. Smarkets have odds on that. I am not sure I fancy tying up my money for that small a return.

TSE