2/ … in reality the problem for the Tories isn’t the country as a whole. @IpsosUK polling in Feb shows Farage second in favourable terms to Boris Johnson with 2019 Con voters.

Arguably Sunak numbers comparable but not sure that’s much consolation. pic.twitter.com/2hTjQddSnT

— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) March 17, 2024

4/ This matters because currently there are a lots of pol that don’t know who Reform are/don’t have an opinion on them.

Their favourables have ticked up slightly recently but remember not everyone has them in double digits nationally. We have them at 8. By elex performance meh. pic.twitter.com/hjh3n3VlAd

— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) March 17, 2024

6/ Key question is what this all actually means. We know Farage has the name recognition and appeal with 2019 Cons to have a real impact. But will he lead the party? Will he stand for parliament?

He regularly talks of Ukips 4 million votes and 1 seat. So what’s the plan? pic.twitter.com/YZ4R4ixlrs

— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) March 17, 2024

8/ Let’s see what happens. These rumours come up from time to time and nothing comes of it.

But make no mistake. A full throttle Farage return makes a ‘Tory Canada’ a much more viable prospect than it realistically was.

But what that comeback looks like is important.

/ENDS

— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) March 17, 2024