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Month: September 2013

Scottish Independence Referendum: One Year To Go

Scottish Independence Referendum: One Year To Go

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#Indyref Polling round up. New politicalbetting thread http://t.co/54IIN5PSh0 pic.twitter.com/URj333GChe — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 18, 2013 In the past few days, to coincide with today being exactly one year away from the Scottish Independence referendum, there’s been a plethora of polling on the topic. ICM for the Scotland on Sunday. This was an online poll, which gave Yes 32%, No 49%, Don’t Knows 19%. Panelbase for The Sunday Times Yes 37 (nc) No 47 (+1), Don’t Know 16 (-1). The changes are from…

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UKIP 2015 could be like Cleggasm 2010 – putting on votes where it doesn’t matter

UKIP 2015 could be like Cleggasm 2010 – putting on votes where it doesn’t matter

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If this is right it is good news for the blues The above chart seeks to graphically represent data in Denis Kavanagh’s and Philip Cowley’s The British General Election of 2010 showing the mean vote changes of the main parties in different categories of seats based on which came first and second in 2005. In doing it gives an interesting picture of what happened with, perhaps, some pointers to next time. The Labour vote showed the largest range with, interestingly,…

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How to get an effective 2-1 that CON will win most seats

How to get an effective 2-1 that CON will win most seats

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Intriguing new GE2015 market from PaddyPower – will the winner be the loser? See pic.twitter.com/gPiVriyCfW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2013 CON cannot secure most seats if it doesn’t win on votes We all know that the national vote thresholds for winning most seats and and overall majority are lower for LAB than CON. Part of the reason is unequal sized constituencies though a much bigger factor is that LAB voters are much more reluctant to turnout where the…

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Local By-Election Preview : September 17th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : September 17th 2013

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Maybury and Sheerwater on Woking (Lib Dem Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Con 21, Lib Dem 15 (Con overall majority of 6) Results of previous electoral cycle: 2010: Con 2,034 (43%), Lib Dem 1,871 (39%), Lab 525 (11%), UKIP 305 (6%) 2011: Con 1,061 (31%), Lab 1,016 (30%), Lib Dem 899 (26%), UKIP 434 (13%) 2012: Lib Dem 1,088 (34%), Lab 1,072 (34%), Con 685 (21%), UKIP 345 (11%) Candidates duly nominated: Norman Johns (Lib Dem), Rashid Mohammed (Con), Stephen…

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Lib Dem Conference: Once more unto the breach

Lib Dem Conference: Once more unto the breach

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Lib Dem Conferences have always been activist focussed, less so since entering government certainly but (possibly excepting a couple of larger set piece speeches) the primary audience is usually the one sitting in the room wearing garishly yellow lanyards. What has come to the fore through those speeches, fringe events, and the conference bar (always the best place to feel the tone of a conference) is, even more than usual, is one of defiance and rallying troops for the ground…

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Corporeal on the LSE polling seminar

Corporeal on the LSE polling seminar

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A couple of days ago I was lucky enough (genuinely) to attend (sneak into the back of) a polling seminar hosted at the LSE featuring professional pollsters, academics, and a few assorted others like Mike (also complimentary wine). To be specific it was hosted somewhere in the depths of an especially labyrinthine and oddly signposted LSE building that left attendees wandering the corridors in search of rescue. LSE is one of the universities that is attempting to engage with the…

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The September ICM telephone poll sees almost no change

The September ICM telephone poll sees almost no change

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Back in July ICM had the two main parties on 36% so there has been some change since. On a positive note for the blues 40% backed the Tories for economic competence compared with 28% in June. LAB saw increase in credibility to 24% from 19% over same period ICM net economic confidence rating moves to +1% In Dec 2012 it was – 11% Mike Smithson