Marf on this week’s unemployment figures
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First Corby by-election poll says Labour is 15 percent ahead
It’s CON 37% (-4.2): LAB 52% (+13.4) LD 7% (-7.5) Lord Ashcroft has published a poll on ConHome this morning suggesting that Labour is going to win back Corby – the seat lost to Louise Mensch at the general election. The shares are above showing the changes since the general election. If repeated in the election it would mean an 8.8% CON>LAB swing which is broadly what we are seeing with current national polling. Essentially the Tories are down a…
London 2012 – Who should get the credit?
Ipsos-MORI More from the MORI poll The first part of the August MORI poll was released during the day and focused on public reaction the the Olympics. Yet to come are the MORI voting intention figures and also the firm’s latest leadership ratings. That’s due tomorrow morning at some stage. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
The Queen, the BBC and Boris the big London 2012 winners – poll
New MORI poll finds just one person in sample of 1,007 who did not believe London 2012 had been a success.bit.ly/NAVkJZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 15, 2012 81% tell MORI that their view of BBC had improved by Olympic coverage. 6% said it had fallenbit.ly/NAVkJZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 15, 2012 70% tell Ipsos-MORI that their view of Royal Family had improved by the Olympics against 5% who said it had fallen.bit.ly/NAVkJZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 15,…
Michael Fallon is the man to calm Tory nerves?
He should take over from Baroness Warsi in the re-shuffle? All the reports about Cameron’s coming re-shuffle suggest that there’ll be very little change at cabinet level with most of the changes being in the lower ranks of ministers. One widely forecast move is for Baroness Warsi to be replaced as party chairman. Two figures are being talked about – Grant Shapps, the 43 year old housing minister, and Michael Fallon, the 60 year old current vice-chairman. Both are effective…
The Wiggins price eases in the SPOTY betting
Best odds shown as %age from Bestbetting But he’s still odds on favourite A factor in this market is how previous elections have worked out. Two of the last four Sports Personalities of the Year have been cyclists and it’s likely that this could happen again. The cycling lobby has been very effective in mobilising the vote and in December the athletics interest is likely to be split between Ennis and Farah. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Why do Governments always seem to lose popularity?
A guest slot by Nick Palmer During the last Government, Mike used to point out that governing parties in Britain nearly always decline in popularity after the initial honeymoon, so the writing was on the wall for Labour after 2005. On the Labour side we didn’t like to admit it, but we knew he was right. With rare exceptions (1983 after the Falklands is the glaring one), governments are on the slide within a few years and never really recover….
Will Tory rebels oppose ANYTHING that Dave offers the LDs?
Is the struggle to retain the 20 seat boundary bonus doomed? It’s being reported by the Telegraph’s Ben Brogan that Cameron is working on a plan to offer the LDs a deal on state funding party funding as a new quid pro quo for getting the boundary changes through. Brogan writes: “…over the next year or so Mr Clegg will find a way to back the boundary review when it comes up for a vote in the Commons. In exchange,…