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Month: July 2012

Will it be at least a generation before we see a coalition again?

Will it be at least a generation before we see a coalition again?

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YouGov: Just 5% of Tory voters and 11% of Lib Dems want the coalition to continue beyond the election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2012 YouGov: 27% of CON voters &13% of LD ones say they would like the coalition to end immediately — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2012 53% of CON voters and 41% of LDs tell YouGov that they want the coalition to end at some point before the general election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July…

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How serious are the Bain attacks for Romney?

How serious are the Bain attacks for Romney?

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Don’t worry, Republicans. The RNC isn’t for another six weeks. Plenty of time to find a new nominee. — Richard Adams (@RichardA) July 13, 2012 Could they even impact on the nomination? About six weeks ago David Herson had a post here under the heading “Is it worth taking out Mitt insurance?”. In it he looked at the possibility of Romney not making it and posed the question of whether Romney punters should cash in their winnings. Since then, of…

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How does Cameron finesse the Lords Reform standoff?

How does Cameron finesse the Lords Reform standoff?

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And can he stop intra-coalition spats becoming more frequent? No-one said government was easy, and coalition governments bring even more challenges for their leadership. This week’s substantial Tory backbench rebellion on Lords reform and consequent government concession on the timetable was another sign of the increasing fractiousness within the Tory-Lib Dem coalition, as was the inevitable response from disgruntled Lib Dems. The immediate problem for the government is how it can hold good to its implied commitment within the Coalition…

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Whose bright idea was elected Police and Crime Commissioners?

Whose bright idea was elected Police and Crime Commissioners?

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Henry G Manson on November’s elections I’m increasingly concerned about the police commissioner elections. As Michael Crick explains the legal requirements are so stringent that even Falklands hero Simon Weston is unable to stand. Despite being one of Britain’s best known veterans the fact that he broke the law as a minor and as such had a criminal record. Crick believes that under legislation last year anyone with a record will be open to legal challenge. If this is the…

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Drudge Report: Condi the frontrunner for Mitt’s VP pick

Drudge Report: Condi the frontrunner for Mitt’s VP pick

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Drudge Report Could my 40/1 shot be a winner? On Sunday, just five days ago, I posted here under the headline “Why I’m betting on Condi to be Mitt’s running mate”. I suggested that the 40/1 then available against the former US secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, as Romney’s running mate was a good bet. Overnight the big political news in the US is that the Drudge Report is saying that Condi is the front-runner. This is what he’s reporting:-…

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Dave’s majority challenge: Part 1 Tactical Voting

Dave’s majority challenge: Part 1 Tactical Voting

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Michael Ashcroft polling September 2011 Could this impact on Tory hopes? (This is the first of a series of articles looking at the Tory chances of winning a majority. This first one looks at tactical voting) One of the big challenges that the blues have had to deal with in recent general elections has been anti-Tory tactical voting in key seats. What happens is that voters choose the contender in their own constituency who seems most likely to beat the…

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What about about the Hung Parliament – No Coalition bet?

What about about the Hung Parliament – No Coalition bet?

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Will all parties be more wary about formal coalitions? William Hill has just put up the above market on the composition of the commons after the next general election and I rather like the OTHER option which was initially priced at 12/1 and is now down to 8/1. My reading is that this would cover situations where no party won an overall majority and that there was, unlike now, no formal coalition deal. I cannot see either the Tories or…

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