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Month: July 2012

The campaign that’s turning Romney main asset into a liability

The campaign that’s turning Romney main asset into a liability

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For now Obama is winning the battle of Bain From the start of his effort to become president the key plank of Mitt Romney’s proposition was that his business career made him uniquely qualified to deal with the massive challenge of the US economy. For a long period this was backed up by the polling. Now that’s starting to change – particularly in the key swing states where the Obama campaign about Mitt at Bain is being targeted. On top…

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Should Dave be guided by the Populus “for the boot” ratings?

Should Dave be guided by the Populus “for the boot” ratings?

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How vulnerable are Lansley, Hunt, May and Osborne? For me one of the big polling events of the month is the Populus telephone survey for the Times which came out overnight. The headline voting figures were LAB 40 (-1): CON 34 (+1): LD 12 (+3) so quite a boost for the Lib Dems after a difficult week. No separate UKIP share has been released yet. An interesting aspect in view of the impending re-shuffle, was a brutal question on which…

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On the eve of the long parliamentary holiday…

On the eve of the long parliamentary holiday…

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Welcome to the PB NightHawks cafe As regulars will know this is the place for our overnight informal political conversation. Have a good evening. UPDATE – Some points from tonight’s Populus and YouGov polls Boost for the Lib Dems in the July telephone poll from Populus for the Times.LAB 40(-1), CON 34 (+1), LD 12(+3). — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2012 Populus “Which ministers should get the boot ratings”: Lansley 53%/Hunt 48%/Theresa May 46%/Osborne 45%/Ken Clarke 36%/Hague 20% —…

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Just 11 days to go and it’s all security and mascots

Just 11 days to go and it’s all security and mascots

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Marf gives here take Get ready. The build up is starting and the story that will dominate everything for the next few weeks will be the Olympics. One day it’s security and another days it’s the mascots. In some form this will have a political impact though it’s hard at this stage to say what. The security issue has caused Ladbrokes to tighten the price on an early cabinet exit for Theresa May. If this all works well then there’ll…

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Could Osborne be in for a move in the re-shuffle?

Could Osborne be in for a move in the re-shuffle?

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Will Dave listen to Trevor Kavanagh’s advice? Coming up in early September, if we are to believe the weekend papers, is Cameron’s planned reshuffle. This is due to take place on the first weekend of the month ahead of the return of parliament and the conference season. Given that this is likely to be the only shuffle before the election its importance cannot be understated. The problem is that reshuffles can be very dangerous for prime minister especially after rebellions…

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What are the chances of the next election being fought on the new boundaries?

What are the chances of the next election being fought on the new boundaries?

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What is your assessment of the chances of the next general election being fought on the new boundaries? A 0-20% chance 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-100%      Will the blues get their 20 seat bonus? There’s one issue that’s going to dominate politics over the next year or so following last week’s Tory backbench rebellion on the government’s Lords reform plan. By October 2013 the planned boundary changes for the 2015 general election will have been finalised and it will…

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Dave’s majority challenge 2 – leadership ratings

Dave’s majority challenge 2 – leadership ratings

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On Jan 20 2012 Dave was 50% ahead of Miliband in the YouGov leadership ratings.Today he is 4% behind — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2012 Ed Miliband’s YouGov leadership rating is a net minus 21 which is 4% ahead of Cameron on minus 25 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2012 Miliband’s YouGov rating of minus 21% is his best since August 2011 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2012 Clegg drops to lowest ever level in YouGov’s leadership…

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