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Month: July 2012

YouGov poll boost for Condi and my 40-1 VP bet

YouGov poll boost for Condi and my 40-1 VP bet

VP possible Most qualified Least qualified Favourable Unfavourable Rob Portman 3% 5% 17% 19% Tim Pawlenty 5% 6% 25% 28% Bobby Jindal 5% 5% 25% 29% Paul Ryan 6% 9% 28% 29% Condoleezza Rice 31% 6% 53% 31% Marco Rubio 6% 9% 29% 28% Economist/YouGov poll How much will her good numbers influence Romney? With Mitt Romney due to announce his choice as running mate within the next month the question of who it will be has become just about…

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Have we ever had such a poor view of all our leaders?

Have we ever had such a poor view of all our leaders?

Ipsos-MORI July 2012 Political Monitor Aggregate satisfaction for all 3 drops below 100 Above is another of the MORI charts deriving from this month’s political monitor. As can be seen none of the three party leaders can take any satisfaction from the latest numbers. There have not been many periods since MORI began polling in the 1970’s when the picture has looked so bleak for all three party leaders. Generally if one or two leaders are doing badly then the…

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Was the rhetoric for the coalition over-blown in the first place?

Was the rhetoric for the coalition over-blown in the first place?

Ipsos-MORI Did Dave/Nick set expectations that were too high? We got the Ipsos-MORI numbers yesterday but this chart from the firm is worth looking at for the way it illustrates the trend. On every measure voters have become disillusioned with the coalition and I wonder if part of the problem was that there were so much hope for it on its creation. Looking back the deal in May 2010 was over-sold. There was too much big rhetoric for something that…

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Labour’s MORI lead up by 4

Labour’s MORI lead up by 4

Labour up 4 in the July political monitor from MORI. It’s LAB 44 CON 31% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2012 Lib Dems up 2% to 12% with MORI – a trend seen in all the recent phone polls — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2012 Today’s 13% lead for Labour from MORI is the biggest for the party since the election that never was in October 2007 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2012 Cameron’s net leader rating…

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Is David Laws right – the coalition WILL last the course?

Is David Laws right – the coalition WILL last the course?

But what if Dave or Nick were to step aside? David Laws, the Lib Dem cabinet minister who had to resign after serving less than a month, has an interesting piece in the Telegraph in which he predicts that the coalition will continue through to a 2015 general election. He concludes:- “..Many predicted there would be a rhythm to this Parliament – unity in the beginning, differentiation in the middle, and divergence at the end. Over the past six months,…

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