The news tonight that ex-senator Rick Santorum is pulling out of the race sets the seal on what everybody has known since the Wisconsin primary last Tuesday – Mitt Romney is going to be the nominee.
For smart punters who like to trade this presents a great opportuntiy for currently the UK’s main betting exchange, Betfair, prices Romney as just a 30.1% chance to become the next president.
In my judgement, backed up by a four figure bet, the Romney price is about to tighten as everybody starts to see White House 2012 as being Mitt vs Barrack.
The 3.2 Betfair price is just to big and it must, surely, move in.
Like most punters who see themselves as traders I am NOT betting on the final outcome of the race – just the way I envisage other punters reacting. The art is to close your bet down after it has moved in so you can guarantee yourself a certain profit.