Marf on the big Obama-Cameron meeting
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Romney heads back to being a 90 percent chance
The chart shows the Betfair betting based on an implied probability. @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads
Did Clegg raise the stakes on Lords reform?
Is the DPM making this the price for boundary changes? One aspect of yesterday’s PMQs, taken by Nick Clegg because Cameron is in the US, which has received very little attention was his throwaway comment in a reply to ex-minister, Peter Lilley, on the boundary changes. Lilley asked why Clegg was putting so much focus on reforming the house of Lords when there were so many more important issues to deal with. The DPM’s response was very telling:- “..There are…
Marf on the jobless news
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Who is getting the most out of this – Dave or Barack?
Is Obama showing he can work with a Conservative? With less than seven months to go before he faces country Barack Obama is giving Dave the full treatment in Washington today. The weather is superb and the pictures could not be better. For Obama it’s useful that Cameron is a Conservative given the onslaught he’ll face from the right in the coming months. Cameron has been careful not to meet any of the contenders for the GOP nomination on his…
Yet again Santorum defies the polling
Google politics One thing clear: the checkered past of primary pre-election polling in AL/MS didn’t improve any tonight. All polls understated Santorum — Mark Blumenthal (@MysteryPollster) March 14, 2012 Santorum’s tendency to outperform his polling averages is statistically significant. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) March 14, 2012 After failing in Alabama and Mississippi will Newt pull out? If like me you believed the polling then you won’t have made any money on the Alabama and Mississippi primaries. Yet extraordinarily the unlikely…
Yet another US election night for PB NightHawks
If you thought that it was all over with Super Tuesday last week then think again. We’ve got three tonight – Alabama, Mississippi and Hawaii. There is also American Samoa (thanks to Chris g00 for reminding me) which has 9 delegates. The big interest will be in the first two where the polling has it very tight. Have a good night. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
The deep south: Where just 12 pc think that Obama is a Christian
And barely 1 in 5 believe in evolution Two of today’s primaries in the race to become the Republican party nominee are in the deep south – the neighbouring states of Alabama (50 delegates) and Mississippi (40 delegates). The polling suggests that both could be very close with only two points separating the three main contenders in Alabama – Gingrich, Romney and Santorum. In Mississippi Gingrich is just two points ahead of Romney with Santorum a further four points behind….