politicalbetting.com

Should there be a different test of their likelihood to vote? Thanks to Anthony Wells at UKPR for spotting this one – the latest voting intention poll for the Ios/Sunday Mirror embraces a new approach to weighting for likelihood to vote for the smaller parties. These include the BNP, UKIP and the Greens. Instead of the pollster’s standard adjustment based on including those rating themselves from 5/10 upwards on voting certainty there will be a tougher measure for the smaller…

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S Telegraph Would this make health less toxic for the Tories? According to Patrick Hennessy in the Sunday Telegraph the long-awaited ministerial re-shuffle could take place this summer before the Olympics. One name being increasingly mentioned, and indeed is the favourite for the axe in the next cabinet exit markets, is the beleagured health secretary and Dave’s former close colleague at CCHQ, Andrew Lansley. One possible replacement is Jeremy Hunt, the culture secretary. However it might not be as simple…

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LAB regain lead with ComRes online Labour has regained the lead in the ComRes poll for tomorrow’sIndependent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror. Con       37% (-2) Lab        40% (+2) LD          10% (-) On next week’s budget those sampled were  asked if people agreed or disagreed with eight options for George Osborne: Raise the starting point of income tax from £7,475 to £10,000 Agree: 81% Disagree: 8% Older people are more likely…

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Recent Threads

Can the discipline hold until and beyond 2015? It’s now over six years since David Cameron was elected leader of the Conservative Party. Assuming he’s still around to address the Tory conference this autumn, he’ll then be the third-longest serving leader of his party since Churchill. What’s particularly notable about this feat is how easy a ride he’s had in that time. His leadership has never seriously been threatened from within. The only ‘on principle’ resignation he’s suffered from his…

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The Revd Peter Ould marks your card Let’s get some preliminaries out of the way. As regards selection, the Archbishop of Canterbury is selected by the Crown Nominations Commission which is made up of lay, clergy and bishop members elected by the General Synod, together with some other co-opted and appointed members. You can see the current list here, though it is likely to change before the appointment of Rowan’s Successor. As far as I can see there is only one…

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Popular wisdom dictates that the popularity of governments and their chances of re-election depend on the economic comfort of the voters, and many experienced campaigners would agree with that. And it ought to be truer than ever in times of crisis like these. But is that what the data show? For a paper at the WAPOR conference being held in Gdansk, we looked at Ipsos* data covering 20 countries since 2007 measuring public perceptions of whether the economy is in…

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Guardian How’ll this help with blue brand decontamination? According to the lead story in the Guardian this morning the chancellor, George Osborne will announce the axing of the 50p tax rate in his budget next week “in a dramatic move that will delight business and the Tory right”. The report goes on”…the Liberal Democrats appear to recognise that they are not going to be able to block what is Osborne’s key demand for the budget, but are trying to maximise…

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