politicalbetting.com

If it’s Thursday then that means two things to the political classes – Question Time on BBC1 and, of course, the local council by-elections. To me these are important for what they say about local party organisation and just how motivated activists are. There are five tonight and there’s a good preview here with all the facts and figures on the Britain Votes site. One of them has been caused by caused by the resignation of a Tory councillor who…

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Ipsos-MORI.com How long before they’re in the minority? Above are two MORI charts from the latest survey covering leadership ratings. As can be seen there has not be much movement overall but within the data from those saying they are Labour voters we see a trend continuing. Satisfaction with Ed Miiband is on the decline while dissatisfaction continues to increase. On a more general level on the last thread I was asked why there is a such a large discrepancy…

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Is the surge to “others” on the wane? Just published is the Ipsos-MORI Reuters political monitor for November and the VI figures are above. As can be seen the split is with changes on last month  CON 34 (nc): LAB 41 (+3): LD 12 (nc).   So the very high others figure of October is on the decline. The firm always produces two sets of VI numbers – one of all those who expressed a preference and the other of those…

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Is their still hope for my 200/1 long-shot? Back in November 2008, only a week and a half after Obama won the White House race, I placed a bet of £50 with Ladbrokes at 200/1 that ex-governor of Utah, Jon Huntsman, would be the next president. I abandoned hope for the bet a few months latest when Huntsman, who is also a former diplomat, accepted an offer by Obama to be the US ambassador to China. He served in Beijing…

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What’ll this do to Huhne’s position? I always love it when a PB post sets off a big gamble. Before yesterday’s well researched piece by Henry G Manson suggesting that we put our money on the HS2-protesting Cheryl Gillen you could have got 8/1 against the Welsh Secretary being the next cabinet exit. Within a few hours that was in to 3/1 where, arguably, it still offers good value. The main obvious other possibility is, of course, LD energy secretary,…

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As per usual the venue is the Dirty Dicks pub directly opposite Liverpool Street station in the City of London. Fat Steve has once again arranged for us to have our own dedicated area on the first floor at the rear of the building. This is for anybody who is interested in PB – not just those who post. It is true that in the past these have tended to be overwhelmingly male gatherings but number of women attending has…

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Will she resign over the HS2 route? The Rt Hon Cheryl Gillan MP’s imminent resignation should be the least surprising ministerial departure for many a year. From day one of the Coalition Government the Secretary of State for Wales made her opposition to High Speed Rail 2 known. With little sign that the original route will avoid her Chesham and Amersham constituency it is likely she will resign within a month. The Cabinet Minister told the Bucks Free Press in…

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Guardian/ICM Gloomy news for the Two Eds from ICM and Populus Two new telephone poll tonight from two firms that were right at the top of the accuracy table at the general election. Populus in the Times has CON 33%(nc): LAB 41%(nc): LD 13%(+5): OTH 13%(-4) so a huge boost for Clegg’s party after their extraordinary poor showing last month ICM in the Guardian has CON 36%(+1): LAB 38%(-1): LD 14%(+1): OTH 12%(-1) – so the LAB lead getting cut…

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