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Month: June 2011

What’s happened to public sector union militancy?

What’s happened to public sector union militancy?

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Will the government have an easy ride? One statistic released this week that received a fair amount of coverage was the median rate of public sector pay settlements in the last quarter: for the first time since the figures were compiled, it had fallen to zero. What is notable is that this restraint hasn’t been accompanied by industrial action. Why not? One possibility is that the unions are biding their time for bigger battles to come, with pension reform being…

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What are the chances of Lords’ reform?

What are the chances of Lords’ reform?

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Could something go through before 2015? I’m suggesting to Ladbrokes and other bookies that a market is set up on whether legislation will be passed before the next general election requiring at least part of the membership of the house of Lords to be elected. The detailed proposals for such a reform were published three weeks ago and include a 300-member hybrid house, of which 80% are elected. Under the plan members would also serve for single non-renewable terms of…

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Can Labour win without David Miliband?

Can Labour win without David Miliband?

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The Henry G weekly column Labour has to do a hell of lot of work to get in fighting shape for contention at the next election. I’ll look at some of these issues in future columns. However it struck me straight after Ed Miliband’s election as Labour leader there were three seemingly ‘superficial’ things that had to be corrected before he really got a proper look-in at becoming Prime Minister. I know this makes me sound old-fashioned but the first…

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How big’s the Tory challenge in Lib Dem bastions?

How big’s the Tory challenge in Lib Dem bastions?

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ConservativeHome A view from a Top Tory analyst There’s an interesting analysis of the May 5th local election result by Rob Hayward on ConHome part of which focuses on the Lib Dem seats which the Tories would hope to take given current polling. “…Nothing in politics is ever perfect nor consistent and the LDs showed remarkable resilience in a number of places probably in the form of incumbency. Where there was a sitting LD MP or Mayor they generally performed…

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The GOP race: Is the best strategy to lay the favourite?

The GOP race: Is the best strategy to lay the favourite?

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Do early polls and betting mean that much? The build up to the 2012 White House race is starting to get more attention with lots of polling and betting interest. The question is whether we can read too much into the situation from early polling and betting. The chart shows the Betfair prices on the four favourites ate exactly this stage in 2007. Notice how the eventual winner John McCain had started to edge out – by July 2007 you…

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New addition to the PB team

New addition to the PB team

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Welcome to Henry G Manson I am pleased to report that Henry G has accepted an invitation join the PB team and will from this weekend have a regular slot. Henry is a long-standing Labour activist in the North East who has been sharing his insights on the site for several years. It was his posts last August that prompted a lot of PBers to get on Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership when could decent price were available. He’s…

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Should the Huhne survival winners have another bet?

Should the Huhne survival winners have another bet?

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Will he still be in the cabinet by the party conference? Those who bet that the resilient Lib Dem energy secretary would still be in the cabinet by the end of May have ended up as winners and Ladbrokes have been very prompt in paying out. The firm has now opened a follow-up market with the operative date being the start of the Lib Dem conference on September 17th. That’s quite a long way off and the whole business of…

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Can the Tories count on their supporters more than Labour?

Can the Tories count on their supporters more than Labour?

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Would the ICM approach have produced a blue lead? Last night, as reported in the previous thread, a new ComRes phone poll suggested that the Tories and Labour were now level pegging – the first time that Miliband’s party had not been in the lead since October 2010. They were both on 37% with the Lib Dems down on just 12%. But looking at the detailed data there’s a huge difference in the “quality” of support between the parties. As…

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