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Month: April 2011

Is NO too reliant on Andrew Rawnsley’s “Thickos”?

Is NO too reliant on Andrew Rawnsley’s “Thickos”?

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Could this have a critical affect on turnout? It was Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer at the end of February who spotted the socio-economic splits in voting intentions on the referendum with those in the lower social groups be more likely to be NO than those in higher groupings. At the time he wrote:- “….The no campaign will probably not put it so indelicately themselves, but they are calculating that their best hope of preserving first past the post is…

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Jonathan asks: Is anybody involved in the AV battle?

Jonathan asks: Is anybody involved in the AV battle?

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Why’s there no sign of activity on the ground? We’ve been debating the AV referendum on PB for more than a year. Well finally it’s here! With less than a month to go, the sun is out and the campaign proper has started. Let’s share reports from the front. Have you made up your mind? Is the march of AV campaigners deafening? And has your passion for AV or FPTP forced you out on the street? To get the ball…

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Who’d benefit most from LD 2nd prefs: LAB or CON?

Who’d benefit most from LD 2nd prefs: LAB or CON?

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Which party’s the most to fear from AV? The chart was prepared from polling data gathered by Professor John Curtice and presented to last week’s session on the alternative vote organised by the Political Studies Association. For each election those who had voted were asked who their second preference would be if they had had a choice. What’s striking about the historical line is that 2010 was the only one of the general elections where the LD split was not…

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Has the electoral bias to Labour now become history?

Has the electoral bias to Labour now become history?

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Can the red team no longer rely on “the system”? For the last twenty years, the Conservatives have needed a greater share of the vote than Labour in order to win an overall majority. That was the case for three main reasons: a higher turnout in safe Conservative seats as against safe Labour ones, a much greater willingness for Lib Dems to tactically support Labour to keep the Tories out than the reverse, and Labour seats being on average smaller…

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Will the focus now move onto other papers?

Will the focus now move onto other papers?

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BBC News And could this still damage Cameron? In a dramatic development this afternoon News International has apologised to several figures whose mobile phone mail-boxes are said to have been hacked into and at the same time set up a £20m fund to deal with compensation claims. The firm is clearly hoping that this will draw a line under the affair which has continued for nearly three years since the Guardian first reported on the story. Amongst those with political…

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Marf on Portugal and austerity packages

Marf on Portugal and austerity packages

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A reminder for Monday April 18th There’s an exhibition currently going on of many of Marf’s PB cartoons at the Guildhall Gallery in the City of London. Marf herself will be there from mid-afternoon on Monday April 18th 2011 ahead of the PB party that evening at the Dirty Dicks pub opposite Liverpool Street station. Both gatherings are open to all PBers whether they are lurkers or commenters. See Marf’s works in a gallery setting AND see the faces behind…

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Can Scottish Labour win back power by ignoring the SNP?

Can Scottish Labour win back power by ignoring the SNP?

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Is it possible to make it a British not a Scottish election? At a briefing session this week organised by the Political Studies Association Professor James Mitchell of Strathclyde University made this cogent point about the elections to the devolved Scottish parliament at Holyrood:- “Evidence suggests that if this election becomes a referendum on the coalition in London, then Labour is likely to be the largest party but if it focuses on which party is most competent to govern Scotland…

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The Coalition loses ground in the council cuts blame game

The Coalition loses ground in the council cuts blame game

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Could this affect the locals on May 5th? Yesterday we looked at the latest finding in the “cuts blame game” and reported that YouGov was still showing a big deficit for Labour with 40% saying the last government was to blame for the spending cuts. There’s another tracker that YouGov has which is focussed on council spending cuts where a different picture is emerging. The question is: “Local councils in many parts of Britain are cutting some of their services….

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