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Month: April 2011

YouGov reports sharp move to NO in just 4 days

YouGov reports sharp move to NO in just 4 days

What’s behind the shift? There’s been a sharp move to NO reported from YouGov and it’s all happened in the space of four days. At the weekend the Sunday Times survey from the firm had the YES campaign with a two point leader amongst decided voters. Today’s SUN is now reporting that the latest poll, where fieldwork closed yesterday afternoon, has NO eight points ahead. This is the first time that News International’s pollster has had NO ahead when the…

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What if it’s an overall YES but England votes NO?

What if it’s an overall YES but England votes NO?

Could the real argument start AFTER May 5th? With one poll after another showing the referendum race as neck and neck there becomes a real possibility that we could see the overall UK result being a YES but with England going NO. The reasons have been discussed here before. The referendum coincides with general elections to the devolved parliaments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland with turnout, perhaps into the 60s. In England there are either local council elections or,…

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Can Labour meet the Colin Rallings target?

Can Labour meet the Colin Rallings target?

Will 1,000+ gains justify the poll ratings? It’s always the case ahead of the May local elections that parties seek to lower expectations in order that they can better them and so declare their performances a great success. That’s politics and we are seeing a bout of it at the moment. So it’s no wonder that Labour is trying to dampen down forecasts that the party is in for a brilliant night on May 5th. The most they’ll admit is…

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The gap edges closer with Populus

The gap edges closer with Populus

Why are phone polls showing a different picture? Overnight we had what is increasingly a rare event – a Westminster voting intention poll that was carried out by telephone in this case Populus for the Times. The shares are CON 36: LAB 40: LD 11. As the former head of polling at ICM, Nick Sparrow, was observing in his April PB polling column the phone pollsters are showing something of a different picture of opinion from the online firms which…

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The Tories drop to 31 with Angus Reid

The Tories drop to 31 with Angus Reid

Poll Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH Angus Reid/ 10/04/11 31 42 11 16 Angus Reid/ 20/03/11 32 41 10 17 Angus Reid/ 04/03/11 33 41 10 16 Angus Reid/ 10/02/11 34 40 11 15 Angus Reid/Sunday Express 28/02/11 32 43 11 14 Angus Reid/ 25/01/11 33 41 12 13 Angus Reid/ 06/01/11 35 40 12 15 Angus Reid/ 20/12/10 35 41 9 12 Angus Reid/ 29/11/10 35 40 13 13 Angus Reid/ 28/10/10 35 37 15 11…

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Is the Royal Wedding set to be a ratings flop?

Is the Royal Wedding set to be a ratings flop?

What’s the best TV audience bet? Over the past 24 hours I’ve been betting quite heavily on the Bet365 market on the size of the BBC TV audience for the Royal Wedding on April 29th. The latest YouGov findings on the public’s view, featured in the chart above, suggest that the talk of massive audience might be over the top. That only 35% told the pollster that they would be watching on TV, exactly the same proportion as those saying…

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Does today mark a new phase of the coalition?

Does today mark a new phase of the coalition?

Click to watch interview Is the Lamb threat pointing to greater LD assertiveness? I’ve been out all day and am only just catching up with the Norman Lamb interview on today’s Politics Show in which he threatened to resign over the NHS changes. Although he is not that well-known Lamb is a key figure within the party and as well as being an assistant whip is also a close advisor to Nick Clegg. I cannot believe that he would have…

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