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Month: April 2011

How AV can be stopped even if it’s a YES

How AV can be stopped even if it’s a YES

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Nick Palmer looks at the final option A former constituent recently contacted the Electoral Commission to ask about the interaction between boundary changes and the referendum, and had this provocative reply: “The review of boundaries and the referendum are linked as they were in the same Bill voted by Parliament. If there is a yes vote in the referendum then the legislation provides for AV to be introduced. However, under the same legislation, this cannot happen until Parliament has approved…

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Jonathan with his “Idle re-shuffle speculation”

Jonathan with his “Idle re-shuffle speculation”

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Who’s going to get moved and when? Next month we’re likely to have the Coalition’s first reshuffle. Whatever happens, the Coalition will break new ground. David Cameron will have to walk a tightrope between the two parties. Can he refresh his tired team and maintain the Coalition’s equilibrium. Here are six candidates who might move: Cable, Hague, Clegg, Laws, Spelman and Lansley. All have had an “interesting” year. How many could be in a new job by the recess? How…

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YouGov AV tracker has the NO lead down to just 1pc

YouGov AV tracker has the NO lead down to just 1pc

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Are YES voters more likely to turn out? With just two and a half weeks to go before the series of elections on May 5th there are polls galore at the moment. YouGov’s latest AV tracker, for the Sunday Times, is out and sees a sharp reversal on what the online pollster found on Tuesday in the immediate aftermath of NO’s first election broadcast. On the face of it the YouGov finding is very different from what ComRes reported last…

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Is Labour losing the battle for Scotland?

Is Labour losing the battle for Scotland?

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Time to be getting your money on – methinks The first YouGov poll in April on the May 5th devolved general election in Scotland is out and shows a continuation in the trend away from Labour and to the SNP. CONSTITUENCY VOTE SNP: 40% (n/c) Lab: 37% (-2) Con: 11% (n/c) Lib Dem: 8% (+3) Other: 4% The big move, and that featured in the chart, has been in the regional vote where the SNP is up three and Labour…

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Others move to 16pc with ComRes online

Others move to 16pc with ComRes online

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And NO increases its lead on AV Tonight’s ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror is out and shows that all three main parties have seen a decline in support since the last comparable poll in March. The shares are CON 35: LAB 39: LD 10: OTH 16 The ComRes phone polls are treated as a separate polling series from the phone surveys. We have not seen the detailed data yet but others have moved…

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Has the coalition blunted the anti-Tory tactical message?

Has the coalition blunted the anti-Tory tactical message?

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Or could it still have some of its potency? The above, I’m sure, is typical of leaflets going out from the yellows to those identified as non-Tories in hundreds of CON-LD encounters throughout England. It’s worked in the past and has helped Clegg’s party build its local government base. So how’s it going to resonate this time? Will the fact of the coalition mean that anti-Tory supporters will be much less likely to vote Lid Dem? Notice the branding above…

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Will it be Wobbly April every year?

Will it be Wobbly April every year?

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How possible is coalition government with elections on? It all seemed so easy last May. Two parties having come together to agree a coalition document over little more than a weekend, leaders joking in the garden of Number Ten and ministers sitting happily around the cabinet table. It looks a different ball game now. Disagreements between members of the two coalition parties have been more frequent and more public in the last month than at any time so far this…

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Marf on Dave’s immigration speech

Marf on Dave’s immigration speech

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Marf currently has an exhibition entitled “City Blues” at the Guildhall Gallery in the City of London – see this review in today’s Independent. On Monday afternoon from about 4pm Marf will be at the gallery ahead of the PB party at the Dirty Dicks public house that evening from 6pm. All PBers, whether lurkers or commenters are welcome to join us then and see many of her cartoons that first appeared on PB. The gallery is only about ten…

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