Punters unmoved as EdM looks set to win the big three

Punters unmoved as EdM looks set to win the big three

It’s 24-4-4 from UNITE’s political committee

The younger Miliband brother has moved a step nearer to securing a big vote in the trade union section of Labour’s leadership election following the decision of the political committee of UNITE to recommend that he be given the endorsement. The final decision will be taken on Monday. He’s already got the GMB and UNISON in the bag.

What’s remarkable is not just today’s outcome but the scale of the vote. It’s understood the committee gave him 24 votes with Andy Burnham and Ed Balls getting 4 votes each.

In the union sector, of course, such endorsements only matter if they influence the mass ballot of those qualified to vote. The evidence from the 2007 deputy race is that members tend to follow what their union is recommending.

So it’s beginning to look as though David Miliband will come first in the MP/MEP section by a reasonable margin with Ed coming first in the union section. The big unknown is the party membership.

So far we are still waiting for a proper poll of party and union members entitled to vote in the election.

The UNITE news has had almost zero impact on the Betfair market where DM is 1.63-1.66 with EM at 2.84-2.96.

Weekend polls: The only polls that I’m expecting this evening are YouGov for the Sunday Times and OnePoll for the People where the split was: CON 40: LAB 30: LD 23.. The poster who has been suggesting that there’ll be big Tory shares in ICM and MORI polls is mis-informed. There is no information. Both firms have told me that they have surveys in the field and that interviewing will end tomorrow night.

Mike Smithson

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