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Month: June 2010

Why’s Clegg doing better with Tories than Lib Dems?

Why’s Clegg doing better with Tories than Lib Dems?

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“Clegg doing well or badly?” Well Badly All voters 61% 17% Tory voters 85% 5% Labour voters 28% 40% LD voters 82% 3% “Cameron doing well or badly?” Well Badly All voters 57% 15% Tory voters 92% 0% Labour voters 23% 39% LD voters 62% 5% What does this say about the coalition? Some interesting leadership approval data from YouGov suggests that both Lib Dem and Tory voters are not too uncomfortable about the coalition. There’s strong support for Cameron…

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What PMQs’ surprise has Dave got in store?

What PMQs’ surprise has Dave got in store?

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Will he be following “The Fink’s” advice? There’s been an intriguing comment from the PM’s spokesman about PMQs – the first of which to David Cameron takes place at the unusual time, for this week only, of 3pm. It was strongly hinted that there will be changes but “wait until this afternoon, don’t want to spoil the fun.” I wonder whether Daniel Finkelstein of the Times was on the right track this morning in his “advice” to the new PM…

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Will a strong Labour keep the coalition together?

Will a strong Labour keep the coalition together?

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What’s the impact of improved Labour poll shares? We have spent very little time looking at the voting intention polls (VI) since the May 6th general election. The next encounter seems to far off that it hardly seems worthwhile. Maybe this is a mistake. For a marked trend in the VI surveys that there’ve been following the election is that Labour has been polling quite a bit above its 29.7% general election share. The latest from ComRes overnight had with…

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Should they try to get a left-winger onto the ballot?

Should they try to get a left-winger onto the ballot?

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Would EdM benefit if some of his surplus switched to John/Diane? The first day back after the long weekend and it’s starting to look as though Labour’s leadership election will be confined to the Two Eds and Dave. Andy Burnham is continuing to struggle while left-wingers, Diane Abbott and John McDonnell, look to have almost no chance of securing the 33 nominations required to get them on the ballot. From the perspective of the Labour movement is it healthy to…

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What if Brown had done this four days earlier?

What if Brown had done this four days earlier?

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Could he have stopped the formation of the coalition? Labour blogger, Tom Harris MP, raises a very interesting counter-factual over what would have happened if Mr. Brown had resigned on the Friday afternoon after the election. Did the then PM’s actions, as Harris suggests, make it easier for the coalition to be formed? Under the heading “Gordon must take his share of the blame for the Coalition” he writes: “…why didn’t Gordon Brown simply resign as Prime Minister on the…

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Guardian story prompts moves on “Laws Return” market

Guardian story prompts moves on “Laws Return” market

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Political Smarkets But how realistic is such a possibility? There’s been some movement overnight in the betting on whether David Laws will return to government following a Guardian report that talks are taking place on Laws playing an informal role in the run-up to the coalition’s first budget in three weeks time. Over the weekend the price against a Laws return this year settled down at about 8%. Now, as I write at 0300, it’s shifted to 40% – 6/4…

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