YouGov – the Sun May 4 May 3 CONSERVATIVES 35% 35% LABOUR 30% 28% LIB DEMS 24% 28% Anthony Wells says: “Just when it was looking as though the position had settled down, we suddenly have a shift in support. It could be the “Cleggmania†bubble bursting, or people pulling away from a hung Parliament after the heavy Conservative campaigning against it, or Liberal Democrat supporters heeding the call of Labour figures to vote tactically for Labour…. or, it could…
Tonight’s polling thread.. I’m in London for my regular slot on the ITV campaign show with Jonathan Dimbleby. Tonight I’m expecting the ComRes roly-poly and YouGov. The big deluge of polls will come tomorrow. I’m won’t be back looking at the site until about 11.30pm. Mike Smithson
Year Post-war elections with a change of government 1951 Outgoing LAB government had lost an effective majority. The Tories won outright 1964 Incoming Labour government with minuscule majority. Second election eighteen months later 1970 Outgoing Labour government with working majority replaced by Tory government also with a working majority 1974F Incoming Labour minority government – second election held seven months later 1979 Outgoing LAB government had lost a working majority. The Tories won outright 1997 Outgoing CON government had lost…
Bestbetting Does it all depend on the Yellow-Blue battles? If this was a straight fight between the Tories and Labour then there would be a strong case for saying back a Tory majority. The polls seem to be suggesting that the blues are doing well enough in these encounters to win. But in three other groups of seats it’s hard to come to that conclusion. CON efforts to take LD seats: The latest polling, by Crosby-Textor, for the Telegraph suggests…
The gap moves down to 8 with ComRes ComRes: ITV News/Indy May 2 May 1 CONSERVATIVES 37% 38% LIB DEMS 26% 25% LABOUR 29% 28% To find out more about Marf’s work click here. Mike Smithson
Bestbetting And tonight’s YouGov poll YouGov – the Sun May 3 May 2 CONSERVATIVES 35% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 29% LABOUR 28% 28% The chart shows the changes over the past 24 hours on the overall majority markets at the betting exchanges. Just look at how it has chopped and changed as gamblers have reacted to different bits of polling news – some pointing in one direction and some in another. No doubt it will get worse tonight with ComRes…
Opinium – D. Express May 3 Apr 26 CONSERVATIVES 33% 34% LIB DEMS 27% 28% LABOUR 28% 25% Are we seeing a last minute recovery? There’s a new poll out from Opinium which sees a three point jump in the Labour share and follows a period which saw the final debate and, of course, “Bigotgateâ€. Although the firm is new this will give real heart to the red team as they try to fend off what seemed like a certain…