Is Marf’s take on this right?
Will they be able to put Nick back in the box? To acquire Marf originals or prints check out her site – LondonSketchbook.com
Does this make a hung parliament LESS likely?
Do the resurgent yellows help Dave more than Gord? The main move in the betting in reaction to the debate has been an easing of the Tory overall majority prices – out from 1.74 at the start last night to 1.82 – and a tightening in the NOM price. This seems to be based on the assumption that the Lib Dems doing better makes the hung parliament possibility more likely – but is that right. Could a Clegg-induced boost actually…
So can he take the Lib Dems past Labour?
Can Clegg’s party beat the 1983 share? So, the first round of debates is over, and by a clear margin all of the major post-debate polls have declared Nick Clegg to be the winner. (For what it’s worth, I thought Clegg was slightly ahead of Cameron, and both were well ahead of Brown.) So what happens now? We’ve already seen a Lib Dem bounce of four points in today’s YouGov – how will Clegg’s debate performance translate into the Lib…
Debate continuation thread
So who’s winning so far? UPDATE: ITV poll: Clegg 43 Cameron 26 Brown 20 YouGov: Clegg 51 Cameron 29 Brown 19 Angus Reid: Clegg 46 Cameron 21 Brown 19 Live results from Angus Reid’s polling panel are available here. Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) The Election Game, covering over 30 countries, is at www.electiongame.co.uk
Let battle commence….
Will the debate be an historic event or a damp squib? … and big jump for Lib Dems with You Gov So, just 50 years after Kennedy and Nixon, the UK finally joins the democracies that hold election debates between leaders. Internationally, a three-way debate is fairly rare (the Bush-Clinton-Perot matchup of 1992 a notable exception) – most are either the “big two” leaders (eg US, France, Germany, Australia) or more of an all-party debate (eg Canada, Austria). Having progressed…
Labour get within 3 with TNS-BRMB
TNS-BMRB Apr 13 Mar 30 CONSERVATIVES 36% 38% LABOUR 33% 33% LIB DEMS 22% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 4% TNS-BRMB – the face to face pollster that asks interviewees to input their voting intentions on a lap-top – has a new poll out with the gap down to just three points. Like all the surveys we have seen from the firm the field-work took an entire week to carry out finishing off on Tuesday. So some…
The debate: watch the polling returns coming in live
Will this give us the first indication? Tonight’s a massive night for political betting and for the pollsters. The sponsors of PB’s election coverage, Ladbrokes, reckon this will be be biggest day ever for betting on a British political event. To get in on the act a new betting exchange with a focus on politics, Political Smarkets, has been launched. They aim to compete with Betfair in this key area. As soon as it finishes the big question will be…
What’s happened to “other others” at ComRes?
Should we be “recalibrating” its figures? Something very strange is happening with the ComRes polling numbers which look as though they might be being distorted by a huge increase in “other others”. This is the category that excludes the three main parties, SNP/PC/UKIP/GRN/BNP and in, for instance, the firm’s February 11th poll was down to just four respondents in a sample of over a thousand. According to the data from last night’s poll for ITV News/Independent “other others” were recorded…