The Tory daily poll lead doubles
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 25 Mar 24 CONSERVATIVES 37% 36% LABOUR 33% 34% LIB DEMS 18% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 2.5% Mike Smithson
The betting moves closer to a hung parliament
Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 326-331 (-6) 227-232 (+4) 56-59 (-1) Extrabet 327-332 (-1) 226-231 (-4) 58-61 (+2) Betfair 330-334.5 231-235 55-56.5 Has market sentiment finally changed? After a period when the commons seat betting markets have been more towards the Tories than the polls we’ve now seen some movement and the Tory sell prices of both SPIN and ExtraBet are just above the critical 325 seat threshold. It’s been the same on the overall majority markets where Ladbrokes…
Are voters in the marginals aware of the fact?
Ipsos-MORI Will voters act differently if they know? Just catching up with the latest MORI poll of the marginals which came out just as the Matt Lebo thread was starting. The survey took place in seats where Labour held leads of between 10% and 18% at the 2005 general election and the poll topline of C37-L41 represents a 5% swing to the Tories. With marginals’ polls you always have to look at the baseline from last time and work back…
Got a Coin Handy?
A guest slot by Matthew Lebo, Associate Professor of Political Science, Stony Brook University Academics make electoral forecasts that differ from those of poll-watchers. First, we use historic data and statistical methods to make our predictions, not simply the latest polls. Second, in addition to accuracy, we also want to learn something about the fundamentals that move voters and decide elections. Third, we want to know more than how people would vote if an election were held today – we…
Should you take the 100/1 shot in Buckingham?
Could it be Stevens not Farage who floors Bercow? One of the great side-shows in the election is the scrap in Buckingham where the speaker, John Bercow, is seeking to defend his seat. The main parties are following the convention of not standing against him but there are one or two tricky opponents who might cause him problems. The efforts by ex-UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, have been well documented and he must be in with a chance. But there’s another…
Are we witnessing a remarkable come-back by Labour?
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 24 Mar 23 CONSERVATIVES 36% 37% LABOUR 34% 33% LIB DEMS 17% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 2.5% 3.5% Tory daily poll lead drops to just 2 percent Tonight’s daily poll by YouGov for the Sun has Labour up to 34% and the Tories down to 36%. The gap equals the smallest that we’ve seen in this series and will add to the jitters in Tory ranks. It is important to stress…
Is this the man who’ll be giving the next budget?
Could Dave ditch Osborne if/when he becomes PM? Just after 4am yesterday morning I was skimming Monday’s overnight thread to get some ideas for my Tuesday morning post when one thing suddenly struck out – a comment saying that SkyNews were reporting that Cameron was going to re-shuffle the shadow cabinet in response to the declining poll ratings. I wrote that although this would smack of panic the timing could not be better because the news would get swamped on…
So is this a game-changer?
How good an election platform is it?