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Month: December 2009

How valid is the quickie PBR poll in the Times?

How valid is the quickie PBR poll in the Times?

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Politicalbetting.com – Thursday evening after the 2008 budget Is instant polling reaction a guide to anything? Every Friday after budgets, and now the PBR, the Times publishes the findings of a quickie small sample non-voting intention Populus poll and invariably this is good for the government. But how seriously should we take it? Shouldn’t we look at the record. I raised this one last March and I raise it again. The above is from the post published here about a…

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The PB/Angus Reid cross-tabs

The PB/Angus Reid cross-tabs

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Angus Reid Strategies Should all pollsters get their data out on the same day? Here is the main set of cross-tabs with the regional and gender splits from this evening’s Politicalbetting/Angus Reid poll which is showing almost no change in the overall picture. Download the full set for yourself here. One of the things I was very keen on when we were setting up the arrangement with the pollster was that the full data-set should be made available as soon…

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PB/Angus Reid poll has the Tories back on 40pc

PB/Angus Reid poll has the Tories back on 40pc

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CON 40%(39) LAB 23%(22) LD 19%(21) OTHERS 18% (18) Has Labour been hurt by the PBR? In the first national voting intention poll to be published after Mr.Darling’s PBR statement both Labour and the Tories move up but the Lib Dem drop down. Fieldwork started on Tuesday and carried on until a few hours ago with just under a third of responses coming in after the Chancellor’s statement. So of the last four national voting intention polls to come out…

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Is it worth 6/4 that this will happen?

Is it worth 6/4 that this will happen?

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Could the AAA rating be lost? There’s been lots of talk about the possibility of Britain losing its triple A credit rating and there’ve been dire forecasts of the consequences of such a decision. But just how likely is it? What do we think of the new PaddyPower betting market?. The firm is offering 6/4 against the possibility that Great Britain to lose its AAA Rating before Jan 31st 2010. The bet will be settled according to the assessment of…

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Has the PBR changed the media narrative?

Has the PBR changed the media narrative?

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Your papers Mr. Darling Here is a selection is selection of today’s front pages from Sky News and the coverage is almost universally negative for Mr. Darling and for the government. The only paper that seeks to put a positive slant on it is the ultra-loyal Daily Mirror which has been doing this for the party for decades. If this was meant to be the platform to launch Labour’s election campaign then the best that can be said is that…

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Does the PBR point to this as the day?

Does the PBR point to this as the day?

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Is it worth risking money on the Martin prediction? Iain Martin in his WSJ blog writes:- …It seems obvious that it was aimed at an election earlier than May, with polling day probably on March 25. In this scenario, Brown would ask the Queen for a dissolution after Parliament returns from its two-week recess on Monday, Feb. 22. That would lead into a four-week-and-a-bit campaign… A March 25 election date would also help Labour on two fronts. The party machine…

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Will deferring the pain save the votes?

Will deferring the pain save the votes?

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BBC News How will this be viewed in Tory targets 100-150? Well there we have it. Darling’s PBR which will frame much of the political debate as we move into the final months of this parliament. The strategy seemed fairly obvious – defer the pain until after polling day. But is this going to be enough? Will voter’s see through it? How, most importantly, is this going to be viewed in Tory targets 100-150 where the election will be decided….

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The PMQs and Pre-Budget Report live thread

The PMQs and Pre-Budget Report live thread

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Follow today’s events as they unfold on PB Alistair Darling is expected to announce a 50% tax on bank bonuses, with a threshold possibly as low as £10,000 – story here. How does the Chancellor plan to halve the deficit within four years, and how will he tread the tightrope between the demands of the markets and the demands of the electorate? 1200 PMQs 1230 Pre-Budget Report Live coverage BBC PBR site BBC Parliament   Double Carpet