Is it worth risking money on the Martin prediction?
Iain Martin in his WSJ blog writes:-
…It seems obvious that it was aimed at an election earlier than May, with polling day probably on March 25. In this scenario, Brown would ask the Queen for a dissolution after Parliament returns from its two-week recess on Monday, Feb. 22. That would lead into a four-week-and-a-bit campaign…
A March 25 election date would also help Labour on two fronts. The party machine is short of money, and would be better getting on with a short and sharp campaign. And the big tax rises â€” the increases in NI and the introduction of the 50 pence landline tax â€” wonâ€™t kick in until April. The Tories might say, during a March campaign, that this means thereâ€™s pain ahead, but Labour will respond by asking what they would do instead.
It all points to March 25.
William Hill will give you 3/1 that it will be before May 6th.