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Month: March 2009

Should private firms like this be running our elections?

Should private firms like this be running our elections?

Opt2Vote Has postal voting made contracting out inevitable? Anybody who has an interest in the way elections are managed and operated should check out the website of Opt2Vote – a firm based in Londonderry in Northern Ireland which seems to have built up a thriving business on the back of Labour’s changes in the election system since 1997 – particularly with the big extension in postal voting. The scale of the firm’s role in UK elections is reflected in its…

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Five years in pursuit of a conversation

Five years in pursuit of a conversation

Thanks to everybody for making the site what it is It’s exactly five years ago today that PB started and this evening there’s a celebration party in London. Thanks to Ladbrokes for their generous sponsorship of the wine. I’m off to the station shortly and am looking forward to meeting many of the PBers who regularly take part in our discussions. From the guest list we have a good mix of long-standing regulars, newer participants and those who, as they…

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Will we see a Brown Bounce III before the election?

Will we see a Brown Bounce III before the election?

SkyNews Poll Tracker In which month do you think that at least two of the pollsters – MORI, ICM, YouGov, Populus and ComRes – will report Labour closer than 9%? April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 or beyond    Give PB your assessment in this online survey We’ve had lots of debate recently about whether there could be…

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Should we be betting on an election this year?

Should we be betting on an election this year?

Will an early poll follow on from the Labour surge? Although the chances of a 2009 election here in the UK may still be slim, by contrast the odds on one across the Irish sea have considerably shortened of late. Paddy Power had quoted 2009 at a meagre 11/10, but this has been slashed to just 1/2 in recent weeks. With Harper surviving the budget vote in Canada and Karamanlis still clinging on in Greece, Ireland is near the top…

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Is this the smartest gamble about at the moment?

Is this the smartest gamble about at the moment?

How to improve your odds by combining bets Over the past few days Richard Nabavi has been alerting us to what seems to be a great betting opportunity by combining two bets – the 4/7 that William Hill Politics is offering on the Tories NOT getting 375 seats or more and the same odds that Ladbrokes are offering on the Tories getting an overall majority. This might sound a bit complicated so let’s go through what I’ve done this morning….

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Will Cameron be able to hold the line on the 45p tax?

Will Cameron be able to hold the line on the 45p tax?

Observer Is Boris going to be a thorn in Dave’s side in the years ahead? What might be good economics is not necessarily always good politics, as the Conservative leadership are discovering over the issue of whether or not to implement Labour’s planned 2011 income tax rise of 45p for the top rate. Lord Tebbit, who prefers spending cuts to tax rises, may be a repeat offender on speaking out against party policy in recent years, but then he does…

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The Tory ComRes lead narrows

The Tory ComRes lead narrows

CON 41(-3) LD 17(nc) LAB 30(+2) But is it because of a weightings change? The latest ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is just out and reports a sharp change from the last survey from the firm nearly three weeks ago but brings ComRes into broad alignment with the other pollsters. So all the five polling organisations that cover UK political opinion have the Tories on 41 or 42% and Labour on between 30-32%. The only divergence comes with…

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Could there be a Labour meltdown?

Could there be a Labour meltdown?

What are we predicting will happen in Wales? I’m back in the Land of My Fathers this weekend to watch the Wales v Ireland Six Nations decider, and to see my folks for Sunday Lunch on Mothers’ Day. As timing would have it, last week I made a vague promise to take a look at what might happen in Wales at the next General Election. Being London-based, I’m sure there is much news from the ground of which I’m simply…

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