Has he gone too far with his comments about Dave? We are getting to stage when almost every comment by a senior Labour MP is being looked at in the context of what might happen in the party after a general election defeat. And the latest “on stage”, as it were, is the Dagenham MP who built up his position in the party two years ago with good bid for the Deputy Leadership when he finished third, John Cruddas. For…
..and only 18% want to stick with Labour The Lib Dems were delighted on Tuesday when the latest Guardian ICM poll had them at 20% – well above the shares from other pollsters including, on that very day, just 14% with Ipsos-MORI. But I wonder how many in the party, particularly those at the top who occasionally give the impression that they are politics primarily because they hate the Tories, are going to view responses from those same LD supporters…
ConservativeHome Could Crosby spell trouble for the Tories on June 4th? A great scoop overnight for ConHome’s Jonathan Isaby suggests that all might not be plain sailing for the Tories in the Euro Election on June 4th – the final major test at the ballots before the general election. For Lynton Crosby, the Oz campaign Guru who managed Boris successful bid for the London Mayoralty last year, has now been engaged by Libertas – the Irish-funded political party that is…
Voting in the PB March 2009 Prediction closed at 6pm and above are the charts showing the number of seats site users believe each of the parties will get at the election. In retrospect I think that we tried to do too much and perhaps ought to have just left it with the three polls featured above. For it was noticeable how voting dropped off as you went down the page. The first survey on election party leaders attracted nearly…
How would Dave deal with the Economics Nobel Laureate? There’s a story running in Italy today and quoted by the Evening Standard, that the Vatican’s favourite economist, Ettori Gotti Tedeschi. is calling for this year’s Nobel Prize for Economics to be given to Gordon Brown. According to Paul Waugh in the Standard: “Tedeschi -a fervent Catholic with five children, professor of economics at the Catholic University of Milan and president in Italy of Banco Santander – has told La Repubblica…
Is the by election seat the best guide to the election? Simply to get a majority, based on the new constituencies boundaries it’s estimated that the Tories need to gain 114 seats. Check out the list on UKPollingReport here. In strict numerical order these include 29 seats where the incumbent or notional incumbent is not Labour and where conventional swing analysis might not apply on quite the same scale. They include Tory targets in Scotland, including some held by the…
Is reminding voters of Thatcher really a good idea? The poster above from Maggie Thatcher’s successful campaign in 1979 is, according to the Spectator Coffee House, being re-worked to form the central party theme of the coming general election. The concept seems dead simple and how smart, you can see them thinking, to link it to the iconic campaign of thirty years ago. This was the last time, it should be said, that the Tories came back to power after…
Click here to watch Why’s the LD schools spokesman getting it so wrong? You’ll have to indulge me if you think I’ve banged on about this too much – but I have a real “bee in my bonnet” about the phoney invalid polling comparisons that journos, pundits and politicians are rushing to make when they compare the polling position at the moment with what went on in 1996/97. And the person who has got under my skin this afternoon is…