Kamala Harris has a 1-point edge over Donald Trump nationally – something Joe Biden never had (he was down 5 points when he left the race).
And Harris and Trump are tied across the collective battleground states. https://t.co/QhtbC8yPEj pic.twitter.com/vqZSuQIZZs

— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) August 4, 2024

74% of Americans are very or somewhat interested in watching a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trumphttps://t.co/eNPh343wmz pic.twitter.com/XicTLtMwAH

— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) August 5, 2024

Replacing Biden with Harris is looking like a great decision so far. Ceteris paribus Trump is likely to win the election if he loses the popular by this margin but we need to start talking about the possibility of Harris winning the election despite losing the popular vote. The more the self confessed pussy grabber chickens out a debate I think this lead will widen for Harris.

Like Labour this side of the pond it is possible the Democratic vote share is becoming very efficient.

TSE