How the pollsters performed on Thursday
I am shocked to learn that People Polling turned out to be the most inaccurate pollster at the general election. I am re-evaluating all the other assumptions I had in life such as the Sun orbiting the Earth, water not being wet, and the French being wonderful.
I like the observation on the exit poll by Professor Jennings which reinforces my views expressed before the election that people would be foolish to bet big against Sir John Curtice and the exit poll.
For those interested, the total absolute seat error on the exit poll was 36 seats, but with an absolute error of just 1 seat for Labour and 10 for the Conservatives. This was a little more than 2019 (seat error of 24) but still an impressive performance (if I do say so myself)…
My expectation is that for the first few years of this parliament we won’t see as many Westminster voting intention polls as we did in the last parliament although there have been some successes in the polls which I will look at in the coming days.
TSE