Tory governments age well in the memory. Labour governments turn sour.

Tory governments age well in the memory. Labour governments turn sour.

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No recent Prime Minister was popular as they left office. Each of the last five had net satisfaction scores – the proportion satisfied minus the proportion dissatisfied – below minus 20 points in their final month, according to MORI’s satisfaction data. Thatcher was the most unpopular, with 71% dissatisfied with the job she was doing. The least unpopular was Gordon Brown, who still had the support of 35% before the 2010 election. If the Scotsman’s relative popularity seems surprising, that’s…

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David Herdson tries to makes sense of the Lib Dem local by-election victories

David Herdson tries to makes sense of the Lib Dem local by-election victories

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Why are their by-election results so out of line with their polling? Another week, another excellent set of local election results for the Lib Dems. Two gains from the Conservatives on big swings re-emphasised the extent of party’s success in the last year, following up on the even bigger and more even more unexpected gains in Sunderland and Rotherham. If we were being picky (and we should be), we might note that the other three by-elections on Thursday weren’t so…

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The CON MPs using the Trump visit to oust Bercow have lost their critical faculties

The CON MPs using the Trump visit to oust Bercow have lost their critical faculties

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Cartoon by Helen Cochrane and Nicholas Leonard. It is 9/4 that Bercow will have bowed out of his role as Speaker before Trump’s state visit With Bercow now facing a no confidence move Betway make it a 9/4 chance that he’ll not be in the role by the time of the Trump state visit. I’m far from convinced that the move by some Tory MPs against the former right-wing Bercow is going to succeed. An effort to thwart him was…

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The Lib Dem local by-election band-wagon continues with two new gains – both from CON

The Lib Dem local by-election band-wagon continues with two new gains – both from CON

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It’s getting to the stage where double digit swings to the LDs are the norm Kingswood and Hazel Leys on Corby (Ind defence, elected as Labour, caused by disqualification of sitting member) Result: Labour 610 (65% +11%), Conservative 252 (27% +13%), Green Party 82 (9% -1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 358 (38%) on a swing of 1% from Labour to Conservative Fairford North on Cotswold (Con defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result: Liberal Democrat 610 (68%…

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The music stops. Who would grab the chair if Jeremy Corbyn steps down?

The music stops. Who would grab the chair if Jeremy Corbyn steps down?

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Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks on the next Labour leader betting market From the start of his leadership of the Labour party, many Labour MPs struggled to contain their doubts about him.  Even before Jeremy Corbyn was elected leader, Mike Gapes was quoted as saying: “I’ll show him as much loyalty as he showed other leaders.”  Within three months, nearly a third of his party including his own shadow Foreign Secretary were in mutiny against his preferred line on…

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Local By-Election Preview : February 9th 2017

Local By-Election Preview : February 9th 2017

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Kingswood and Hazel Leys on Corby (Ind defence, elected as Labour, caused by disqualification of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 24, Conservatives 5 (Labour majority of 19) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,522, 1,472, 1,450 (54%) United Kingdom Independence Party 606 (22%) Conservatives 399, 314, 303 (14%) Green Party 275, 218 (10%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 11,470 (36%) LEAVE 20,611 (64%) on a turnout of 74% (No local ward…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast looks at Germany, Brexit, an Opinium poll on the PMs of the last 30 years, and Clive Lewis

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast looks at Germany, Brexit, an Opinium poll on the PMs of the last 30 years, and Clive Lewis

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In part one, Keiran speaks to German political commentator and elections expect Nina Schick, who explains what we should look out for in German politics, the SPD surge and what the German government wants from Brexit. In part two, Keiran is joined by Leo Barasi to discuss the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey looking at whether the PMs of the past 30 years did a good or bad job and how this compares to current perceptions of Theresa May. Who…

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Why a progressive alliance in Stoke Central might be doomed

Why a progressive alliance in Stoke Central might be doomed

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2015 general election result under different voting systems by The @electoralreform Society https://t.co/Gyvm8kJbyt pic.twitter.com/iMKpYJA6hd — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 24, 2016 Electoral pacts may not help Labour and a progressive alliance Last weekend The Guardian published a story which said ‘Jeremy Corbyn’s team have informally explored the idea of collaborating with the Greens and Liberal Democrats in Stoke-on-Trent Central to keep Paul Nuttall, the Ukip leader, out of parliament. A senior figure in the Labour leader’s office has asked a go-between…

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