Betfair has Tories as 69% chance of taking Copeland – but remember Richmond Park

Betfair has Tories as 69% chance of taking Copeland – but remember Richmond Park

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But remember December’s Richmond Park betting Like BREXIT, Trump and Richmond Park the betting could be pointing us in the wrong direction It has become widely accepted since the EU referendum and the White House Race that the polls and the betting might not be as good a guide to political outcomes as some might hope. In fact looking at Richmond Park on Betfair 2 days beforehand the price of the eventual winner was even longer than Trump or Leave….

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No hard data, of course, on Stoke Central but two excellent pieces of journalism

No hard data, of course, on Stoke Central but two excellent pieces of journalism

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There’ve been two excellent pieces of journalism today on the Stoke Central by-election which both provide some insights and in broad terms are in the same area. The FT’s Sebastian Payne has the video report above and the excellent Stephen Bush in the New Statesman has stuck his neck out and is suggesting that LAB’s organisational strength will see it home. This is from the Bush piece: “..Ukip have a problem: finding their voters and getting them to the polling…

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Latest YouGov sees LAB in third place, 3% behind UKIP, amongst the C2DEs

Latest YouGov sees LAB in third place, 3% behind UKIP, amongst the C2DEs

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Labour’s polling misery continues One very striking feature of the latest YouGov poll out this morning is LAB position amongst the lower socio-economic groups. The numbers are in the chart. As can be seen in this segment LAB is on just 20% which is 3% behind UKIP. Will have to see a week on Thursday whether these movements are refelected in the latest batch of Westminster by elections. Stoke Central clearly, has a large proportion of C2DEs and if this…

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Hilary Benn. The Peacemaker who should be the next Labour leader

Hilary Benn. The Peacemaker who should be the next Labour leader

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Embed from Getty Images Leadership talk is in the air. Names are tossed into the ring, trampled on and tossed out again. I have a simple view. When you look at the enormous task of transforming Labour’s fortunes there is only one name worth considering. So: sorry Yvette, Lisa, Angela, Liz, Seema, Chuka, Keir, Clive, Dan. I love you all and admire your various talents. But Hilary Benn is the only person capable of dragging Labour back into electoral contention….

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Corbyn is going nowhere – for now

Corbyn is going nowhere – for now

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Next year, not this, is the best bet for a change of Labour leader, argues Joff Wild The good news for Jeremy Corbyn is that he is not the most unpopular politician in the UK. The bad news is that the two men who beat him to top spot are Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. With the Labour leader being kept out of view from voters in Stoke and featuring prominently on Tory campaign literature in Copeland, and the party’s…

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As the Labour Party’s private research is leaked, there appears to be an inevitability about Corbyn departing before the general election

As the Labour Party’s private research is leaked, there appears to be an inevitability about Corbyn departing before the general election

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Blistering good story by @STJamesl. So BMG focus grouped, Rebecca Bailey-Long, Angela Raynor, and John McDonnell. https://t.co/n6Mf5eEwtr — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 12, 2017 It feels like it is now a question of when Corbyn quits before the next general election, not if. The Sunday Times have a copy of the Labour party’s internal research conducted by their pollsters BMG, it appears there is some succession planning taking place by Corbyn, with a focus group being undertaken on his potential preferred…

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