Labour’s polling misery continues
One very striking feature of the latest YouGov poll out this morning is LAB position amongst the lower socio-economic groups. The numbers are in the chart. As can be seen in this segment LAB is on just 20% which is 3% behind UKIP.
Will have to see a week on Thursday whether these movements are refelected in the latest batch of Westminster by elections. Stoke Central clearly, has a large proportion of C2DEs and if this YouGov polling is correct then it should theoretically reinforce UKIP’s position.
The problem with both the coming by-elections is that the turnout is expected to be very low indeed and this could make a mockery of efforts to applying national polling to a local situation. Stoke central, as has been widely reported, had absolutely the lowest turnout level of all 650 constituencies at the 2015 general election. If it gets much beyond 30% in the by-election that will be something of a surprise and the fewer the numbers of people actually voting the greater potential for upsets.
It is quite remarkable that LAB, the party that for generations has been seen as the mouthpiece of the working classes, now finds itself in third place amongst that group.