Stoke Central is set to rank alongside Darlington in 1983 as one of the great by-elections of modern times

Stoke Central is set to rank alongside Darlington in 1983 as one of the great by-elections of modern times

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An unlikely LAB hold in Darlington kept an unelectable leader in office So much has happened in the Stoke central by-election that it it looks set to take its place in by election history alongside what many regard as the most sensational of all, Darlington, in 1983. That took place exactly a month after the Bermondsey when Simon Hughes had an unlikely and still controversial win against LAB. The political atmosphere at the time, like today, was highly charged as…

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Impressions from Cumbria: Labour will win if they can turn their vote out

Impressions from Cumbria: Labour will win if they can turn their vote out

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Copeland gives a good demonstration of why governments so rarely gain by-elections A wet and windy Saturday in Copeland is neither the time nor place to be wearing £250 brogues, as one volunteer reporting for duty in Egremont discovered (he was later spotted sporting rather less stylish but more functional off-white trainers). I mention this not as advice – it’s too late for that – nor to poke fun at the volunteer, who shall remain nameless (it wasn’t me!), but…

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Brexit: We wuz robbed but is Tony the one to stop it.

Brexit: We wuz robbed but is Tony the one to stop it.

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Don Brind on the Blair intervention Like many 48 per centers I believe last year’s referendum victory for Leave was built on a mountain of mendacity, epitomised by that bus promising £350 million for the NHS. So it was good to hear Tony Blair declare, in his speech to Open Britain last week, that Brexit “will not mean more money for the NHS but less; actually it probably means a wholesale rebalancing of our healthcare towards one based on private…

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With so much free polling data available LAB is wasting members’ money on the “should JC quit” 10k sample survey

With so much free polling data available LAB is wasting members’ money on the “should JC quit” 10k sample survey

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The Mirror is reporting that Corbyn has commissioned a 10k sample poll to get views on his own future. It notes:- “Mr Corbyn is keeping the results of the extraordinary 10,000-person study secret from the rest of the shadow cabinet, and from senior staffers in Labour HQ. Only his closest ally, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell , and his most senior political aides will be allowed to see the results of what is thought to be the biggest-ever opinion poll commissioned…

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Copeland and Stoke Central – the final push

Copeland and Stoke Central – the final push

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A round up of some of the literature Latest LD communication delivered in Copeland looking like a freebie paper pic.twitter.com/kfgopx1T3s — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 19, 2017 CON A3 leaflet delivered yesterday in Copeland on this final weekend pic.twitter.com/KQW1fJF0hT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 19, 2017 LAB wrap round ad in local Copeland paper which obviates need for activists to deliver pic.twitter.com/nveukghAZl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 19, 2017 Just 3 days left with so much hanging in the balance…

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Polling Matters review of the week: Immigration, Blair and looking ahead to Copeland and Stoke

Polling Matters review of the week: Immigration, Blair and looking ahead to Copeland and Stoke

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Keiran Pedley reviews the events of last week and looks ahead to a big few days for Labour. On this week’s podcast I was joined by Leo Barasi and Harry Carr of Sky Data. We looked at Trump’s approval ratings in their historic context, YouGov polling for Channel 4 on ‘fake news’ and our latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here. Our Polling Matters survey this week was on immigration….

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Betting on whether Diane Abbott will be Shadow Home Secretary at the end of 2017

Betting on whether Diane Abbott will be Shadow Home Secretary at the end of 2017

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William Hill have a market up whether or not Diane Abbott will be Shadow Home Secretary at the end of 2017. It has been a difficult few weeks for her, particularly over the Article 50 votes, so I can understand why William Hill have put up this market. I’ve spent a few hours trying to work out what the best option is, and I still can’t decide. I think if I had to choose I’d take the 3/1 but it…

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Main polling headlines from the US and in the UK

Main polling headlines from the US and in the UK

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Trump slumps to historic approval rating low less than a month after becoming President Latest Gallup Trump approval ratings have him at historic low for a President within a month of inauguration pic.twitter.com/XzwKhltUeD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2017 CON lead over LAB up 6% with Opinium Latest @OpiniumResearch GB Wide Westminster VI poll Con 40 (+3) Lab 27 (-3) UKIP 14 (nc) LD 8 (nc) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2017