William Hill have a market up whether or not Diane Abbott will be Shadow Home Secretary at the end of 2017. It has been a difficult few weeks for her, particularly over the Article 50 votes, so I can understand why William Hill have put up this market. I’ve spent a few hours trying to work out what the best option is, and I still can’t decide. I think if I had to choose I’d take the 3/1 but it is no bet for me because of that.
The reason I thought of backing the 3/1 was that Brexit will dominate Parliament and politics for next few years at least, which lead to Mrs Abbott being forced to back Brexit, which could lead to further
migraines problems for her and her boss, ultimately leading to her being sacked. But then Corbyn isn’t sacking his whips who rebelled against him, perhaps she might be safe after rebelling.
With the feeling of some, myself included, that we’re approaching the end of Corbyn’s tenure as leader, a new leader might not keep her as Shadow Home Secretary, but there’s probably better bets available if you think Corbyn is going this year.
Backing the 2/9 did have some virtues, she and Corbyn do have a long history, and she is one of his most loyal and passionate supporters, and he’s not in position to lose people like that in his shadow cabinet. But the bet might not pay out if Diane Abbott is moved to another role such as Shadow Chancellor or Shadow Foreign Secretary, although such a move would be unfair on the incumbents who seem to be putting in relatively decent performances in their role, especially Emily Thornberry.
Perhaps PBers can come up with a compelling reason(s) for which side of this bet I should be backing.