Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won’t tell you anything and could be costly

Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won’t tell you anything and could be costly

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The final 12 hours of betting on Richmond Park Above is a chart showing the Betfair exchange prices on the day of December’s Richmond Park by-election. As can be seen those who were following the betting for their inspiration would have got it wrong until about 11:30 p.m. At that point, it will be recalled, the TV news programmes started reporting that Labour campaigners were suggesting that the Lib Dems had gained the seat by majority of about 2000. As…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: Looking at Mrs Thatcher & how LAB can re-engage with disaffected working class voters

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: Looking at Mrs Thatcher & how LAB can re-engage with disaffected working class voters

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts:   In part one, Keiran is joined by the former Editor of the Sunday Telegraph, Daily Telegraph and Spectator Charles Moore. Charles is also the authorised biographer of former Conservative Prime Minister Lady Margaret Thatcher and still writes columns for the Telegraph and Spectator today. He spoke to Keiran to give his perspective on the recent Polling Matters / Opinium survey that showed Thatcher as the most popular PM of…

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Mega By-Election Week (Day Two) plus a Copeland cartoon

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two) plus a Copeland cartoon

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Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Labour 824 (62% +32%), Conservative 472 (35% -11%), Liberal Democrat 42 (3% -3%) Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 352 (27%) on a swing of 21.5% from Con to Lab Chigwell Village on Epping Forest (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 35, Ratepayers 13, Independents 3, Liberal Democrats 3, Green Party 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 2 (Conservative…

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Applying huge governing party national poll leads has been a very poor guide to Westminster by-elections

Applying huge governing party national poll leads has been a very poor guide to Westminster by-elections

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Beckenham Nov 1997. (LAB polls leads 30%+) Eddisbury Jul 1999 (LAB poll leads 20%+) Kensington & Chelsea Nov 1999 (LAB poll leads 20%+) Why the betting markets might be getting Stoke Central and more particularly Copeland wrong Almost ever since the Copeland by-election was declared the Conservatives have been a very strong odds on favourites. As has been pointed out repeatedly for them to take a seat off Labour while being the governing party would be an extraordinary achievement and…

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Why I’m betting that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader out

Why I’m betting that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader out

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Next leader to leave – William Hill 6/4 Nuttall (In from 9/4) 6/4 Corbyn 5/1 May 8/1 Sturgeon 12/1 Farron At the weekend I had a bet at 9/4 with William Hill that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader to exit his post. That’s since tightened to 6/4 which still looks a good punt. Clearly amongst the other options Corbyn is most at risk but as we’ve seen he is a stubborn old man and the party rules…

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Storm Doris to hit Stoke and Copeland tomorrow with winds of up to 80 mph

Storm Doris to hit Stoke and Copeland tomorrow with winds of up to 80 mph

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What’s this going to do to the by elections? With 24 hours ago to the crucial by elections in Stoke central and Copeland and the Met Office has issued a warning about the weather tomorrow. As can be seen above things look as though they could be quite nasty and it’s hard to see how this will not impact on turnout. The idea that poor weather can cut the number of participants in elections has been knocked on the head…

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Mega By-Election Week : Day One (February 21st 2017)

Mega By-Election Week : Day One (February 21st 2017)

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This week will see six by-elections but not all on the same day. There is a by-election tonight, three tomorrow night and on Thursday two Parliamentary by-elections that may break a duck that has lasted anything from 35 years to 57 years and create a vacancy at the head of the Opposition. But first, as they say in all the great stage plays, we have the opening curtain Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result…

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Fifty shades of grey voters. Corbyn’s punishing polling with older voters.

Fifty shades of grey voters. Corbyn’s punishing polling with older voters.

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Corbyn is doing worse with older voters, and history shows older voters turn out to vote and are a growing demographic. A few weeks ago whilst looking at the polling entrails I was struck by how much of a lead with older voters Mrs May was developing over Jeremy Corbyn in the best Prime Minister polling. As we can see with the chart above, there’s a clear correlation with the older you get, the more you prefer Mrs May as…

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