During February the Tories have defended NINE local by-elections – they only managed to retain TWO

During February the Tories have defended NINE local by-elections – they only managed to retain TWO

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Summary : February 2017 February local by election aggregate % vote shares with changes on last time CON 24%-5 LAB 24%-5 LD 28%+18 UKIP 9%-6 OTH 9%+3 Liberal Democrats 7,162 votes (28% +18% on last time) winning 7 seats (+4 seats on last time) Labour 6,305 votes (24% -5% on last time) winning 5 seats (+1 seat on last time) Conservatives 6,255 votes (24% -5% on last time) winning 2 seats (-7 seats on last time)…

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Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

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It is in the nature of political junkies, like sharks, to be constantly moving forwards, and like goldfish, to be constantly forgetting what has just happened.  We should try to do better.  In the wake of two extraordinary by-elections we should reflect on their implications.  Because, as it happens this time, their implications are manifold. The Conservatives did incredibly well This is one of those rare occasions where the media have actually underplayed something.  The Conservatives’ victory in Copeland is…

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If UKIP can’t crack FPTP soon it’ll find itself almost without elected reps when current MEP terms end

If UKIP can’t crack FPTP soon it’ll find itself almost without elected reps when current MEP terms end

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Once again an election for a Westminster seat has highlighted the struggle UKIP has with first past the post elections. Even though it was placed third in terms of national vote share at GE2015 it only managed one of the 650 MPs. That was, of course, Carswell’s Clacton seat which he’d won in the 2014 by election when he’d stood as a defector incumbent. Getting to be top dog in one of the Westminster seats requires a very different approach…

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If Labour don’t take the lead in the polls, is that how John McDonnell topples Jeremy Corbyn?

If Labour don’t take the lead in the polls, is that how John McDonnell topples Jeremy Corbyn?

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Is this how John McDonnell topples Corbyn? If Corbyn doesn't improve in the poll. From earlier on this month. https://t.co/gPLPTnD88h pic.twitter.com/SiLovgH2IA — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 If Corbyn is toppled will it be one of his inner circle that wields the dagger? Earlier on this month John McDonnell gave an interview in which he said the polls will reverse in the next 12 months. We’ve already seen articles saying that McDonnell is taking over. If McDonnell feels that Labour…

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If Jeremy Corbyn wants to see Labour humiliated at a general election he will continue as Labour leader

If Jeremy Corbyn wants to see Labour humiliated at a general election he will continue as Labour leader

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Tories GAIN Copeland. Surely Corbyn has to realise he is toxic with voters? pic.twitter.com/2Q29M0Z58y — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 Copeland, result:CON: 44.3% (+8.5)LAB: 37.3% (-4.9)LDEM: 7.2% (+3.8)UKIP: 6.5% (-9.0)IND: 2.6% (+2.6)GRN: 1.7% (-1.3) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017 #Copeland declaration imminent. A reminder there's been nothing directly comparable to this since the 19th century https://t.co/he6JBa4Y8B pic.twitter.com/90mk2A7tFv — Number Cruncher Politics UK (@NCPoliticsUK) February 24, 2017 In Copeland, Labour came very close to saying vote for us or…

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If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can they win without defector-incumbents?

If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can they win without defector-incumbents?

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Gareth Snell the embodiment of David Cameron's maxim about Twitter wins the Stoke by-election. Paul Nuttall loses in the capital of Brexit pic.twitter.com/NOeE2kJC79 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 Stoke on Trent Central, result:LAB: 37.1% (-2.2)UKIP: 24.7% (+2.1)CON: 24.3% (+1.8)LDEM: 9.8% (+5.7)GRN: 1.4% (-2.2) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) February 24, 2017 Stoke is only the 6th time in a by election in England since 1970 that the government has seen their share of the vote rise – John Curtice —…

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Expectations management or the harbinger of a truly terrible night for Labour?

Expectations management or the harbinger of a truly terrible night for Labour?

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Interesting via @AndrewSparrow https://t.co/pdMYYngJqi pic.twitter.com/Wb4kVE1qa1 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 23, 2017 Chatter is Labour hold Stoke, Tories take Copeland but consensus so often wrong! results in a few hours that could change political mood — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) February 23, 2017 Looks like party estimates of 30% turnout in Stoke could come true. Utterly dire – and could swing the entire result. From today's WaughZone pic.twitter.com/8ZtAN6vVjl — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) February 23, 2017 Latest Betfair odds implies UKIP have…

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Mega By-Election Week (Day Two: Take Two) : February 23rd 2017

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two: Take Two) : February 23rd 2017

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D-Day. The day Doris Day came to Copeland pic.twitter.com/Laa4WYkxVp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2017 https://twitter.com/pgo1980/status/834700676710162432 Copeland Parliamentary by-election (Lab defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result at last general election (2015): Labour 16,750 (42%), Conservative 14,186 (36%), United Kingdom Independence Party 6,148 (16%), Liberal Democrat 1,368 (3%), Green Party 1,179 (3%) EU Referendum Result (estimate): REMAIN 40.15% LEAVE 59.85% Candidates duly nominated: Michael Guest (Ind), Rebecca Hanson (Lib Dem), Trudy Harrison (Con), Ray Ivinson (Ind), Jack Lennox…

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