The quite extraordinary demographics of Manchester Gorton where the next Westminster by-election will be held

The quite extraordinary demographics of Manchester Gorton where the next Westminster by-election will be held

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Young, non-white with a huge number of students The following is based on a briefing by David Cowling who writes that the “incomparable House of Commons Library have produced the following summary of 2011 census data for Manchester Gorton constituency” 52.4% of its residents were “White”; this is the lowest for any constituency in the North West, and the 8th lowest for constituencies across the UK outside London (Slough, Leicester South and Leicester East, Bradford West, Birmingham Perry Bar, Ladywood…

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Theresa Maybe? Definitely not

Theresa Maybe? Definitely not

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It’s only eight weeks since The Economist’s cover story but the mood has changed decisively At the turn of the year Theresa May was besieged by many similar opinion pieces, several of them prompted by Sir Ivan Rogers’ resignation on 3rd January. Indecisiveness was the central charge, specifically over Brexit but also with regard to the operation of her Downing Street office and some rushed and/or reversed policy announcements. Her predecessor’s alleged nickname for her – “Submarine” – was used against her in articles…

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Fillon stays in the race and the morning’s big betting move to Juppe comes to an end

Fillon stays in the race and the morning’s big betting move to Juppe comes to an end

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Both Fillon and Macron move up in the French President betting following Fillon statement that he's staying in race. pic.twitter.com/60j5cASg4h — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2017 The gamble on Juppe (100/1 this morning, into 8/1 before Fillon spoke) looks to have been foiled. https://t.co/zxwX6a3R3d — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) March 1, 2017 But the problems over his wife’s “jobs” gets more serious There’s been a huge amount of movement in the French Presidential betting following news that the wife of…

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Mapping across – how the Brexit vote might translate onto the next general election

Mapping across – how the Brexit vote might translate onto the next general election

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(Source: Prof John Curtice) The referendum vote cut across party loyalties.  While Conservative supporters primarily voted Leave and Labour supporters primarily voted Remain, substantial minorities of both party supporters dissented from their colleagues.  This gives both major parties a potential headache about how to proceed in the wake of the vote, the more so because the British Election Study found in October that people were more likely to identify themselves as Remain or Leave supporters than followers of a particular…

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Betfair moves sharply back to Macron for French President following a run of good polls

Betfair moves sharply back to Macron for French President following a run of good polls

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Over the past week there has been a strong move on the betting markets to the 39 year old independent, Emmanuel Macron, for next French president following a series of polls that have him clearly in the top two for a runoff place. Just over a week ago Macron wasn’t barely managing 20% shares across the board and was being beaten in some surveys by the French Republican Party candidate, Fillon. That changed sharply and the latest batch of polls…

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For a party with less than one MP UKIP sure knows how to hog the headlines

For a party with less than one MP UKIP sure knows how to hog the headlines

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Ukip donor Banks says he will run against Carswell at next election after MP describes party as a 'basket case' https://t.co/9EcJfklbkp v — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 28, 2017 https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/836335896379207680 @MarkReckless this Carswell tweet says it all. UKIP MP or not, I'll stand against him in Clacton next election! https://t.co/NjuTDITiBI — Arron Banks (@Arron_banks) February 27, 2017 My money would be on Carswell. Extraordinarily popular in Clacton and, no doubt, has the data. https://t.co/LgYNzLtff5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 28,…

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Why Corbyn should stay

Why Corbyn should stay

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In 1981 when Tony Benn stood for the Deputy Leadership against Healey and lost by a 0.9% margin , he got 30% of the Parliamentary Labour MPs’ votes but 19 members of Tribune abstained, including one Neil Kinnock.  Margaret Beckett denounced him furiously as a Judas, allegedly prompting another MP to say: “So Benn is Jesus now, is he?”.  Following the 1983 defeat, it took Kinnock two elections and hand-to-hand combat with Militant and others before Labour once again became…

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Unless LAB make a disastrous candidate choice then it’s hard to see them losing Gorton

Unless LAB make a disastrous candidate choice then it’s hard to see them losing Gorton

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A seat where 62.1% voted REMAIN should in theory be challenging for Corbyn’s LAB Yesterday I Tweeted expressing the wish that the next by-election along would be somewhere that voted to stay in the EU last June 23rd. Sadly that has come about following the death of the long-standing Labour MP, Sir Gerald Kaufman, at the age of 86. As can been seen by the map the seat is rather odd shaped covering an area to the south of Manchester…

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