Over the past week there has been a strong move on the betting markets to the 39 year old independent, Emmanuel Macron, for next French president following a series of polls that have him clearly in the top two for a runoff place.
Just over a week ago Macron wasn’t barely managing 20% shares across the board and was being beaten in some surveys by the French Republican Party candidate, Fillon. That changed sharply and the latest batch of polls has Macron averaging 24 to 25% for the first round of voting.
That is still below Le Pen in most surveys but as we all know it is being in the top 2 in the first round that really matters in order through to the runoff a fortnight later in early May.
In all of this the National Front’s Le Pen is staying fairly constant on 26 to 27 percent in the polls.
It is the second round polling that is most significant and here Macron is above 60% with Le Pen on less than 40%
The betting in the UK has been very high with more money being matched on Betfair than I have ever known for a non-US, non-UK election seven weeks out.
I was on Macron early at 7/1 but made the mistake last week of cashing out. Still a profit is always a profit.
This is still very early days and a lot can happen. The Macron bubble could still burst.