N Ireland’s election: the road to nowhere?

N Ireland’s election: the road to nowhere?

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We look to be heading back to a suspension Normalcy does not suit Northern Irish politics. A political structure designed to overcome the legacy of the seventeenth century (with a good deal of success, it has to be said), is in severe danger of being incapable of handling the practicalities of the twenty-first. It’s not unusual for a coalition to break down over some disagreement of policy or administration, and for elections to follow. It is, by contrast, unusual for…

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A grim set of local by-elections for Corbyn’s LAB losing a seat in Salford to CON and seeing average vote share down 13.4%

A grim set of local by-elections for Corbyn’s LAB losing a seat in Salford to CON and seeing average vote share down 13.4%

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Mudeford and Friars Cliffe on Christchurch (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservative 629 (47% -9%), Independent 466 (35%, no candidate at last election), Labour 91 (7% -9%), UKIP 85 (6% -22%), Green Party 72 (5%, no candidate at last election) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 163 (12%) on a notional swing of 22% from Con to Ind Redcar and Cleveland Hutton (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservative 860 (57% +3%), Liberal Democrat 326 (22% +5%),…

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In “normal times” concern about the NHS reaching a 15 year high would point to a big problem for ministers

In “normal times” concern about the NHS reaching a 15 year high would point to a big problem for ministers

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But LAB played the NHS card in Copeland and still lost For the third Friday in a row I’m off to hospital this morning after being one of those who’ve added to this winter’s unprecedented demand on the NHS. At the start of February after a heavy cold I woke one morning to discover both my ears had been bleeding and I’d lost 80-90% of my hearing. This was profoundly shocking, isolating and very worrying. I realised I needed the…

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Local By-Election and Northern Ireland Election Previews : March 2nd 2017

Local By-Election and Northern Ireland Election Previews : March 2nd 2017

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Mudeford and Friars Cliffe on Christchurch (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 19, Independents 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 16) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,900, 1,897, 1,437 (56%) United Kingdom Independence Party 945 (28%) Labour 558, 515 (16%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 12,782 (41%) LEAVE 18,268 (59%) on a turnout of 79% Candidates duly nominated: Fiona Cownie (Green), Sheila Gray (Ind),…

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Another way of looking at how the parties are doing – how successful they are at fundraising

Another way of looking at how the parties are doing – how successful they are at fundraising

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LAB drops to 3rd LAB pushed into 3rd place in the Q4 2016 party donation totals from @ElectoralCommUK . UKIP got just £33k. CON top pic.twitter.com/k6ufeXHbVj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2017 See the difference between the amount of private v public funding received by political parties pic.twitter.com/n7E9EAdu5z — Electoral Commission (@ElectoralCommUK) March 2, 2017 Tweet

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: After the by-elections what next for LAB/Corbyn/UKIP plus a look at Northern Ireland

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: After the by-elections what next for LAB/Corbyn/UKIP plus a look at Northern Ireland

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics. The panel discuss the fallout from and historical significance of last week’s by-elections in Stoke and Copeland and what happens next for Labour and UKIP. Keiran introduces polling that shows the significance of Corbyn’s leadership in Labour’s situation as well as polling from YouGov on who might replace Corbyn as Labour leader should he be replaced. Finally, Keiran and Adam unveil…

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The quite extraordinary demographics of Manchester Gorton where the next Westminster by-election will be held

The quite extraordinary demographics of Manchester Gorton where the next Westminster by-election will be held

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Young, non-white with a huge number of students The following is based on a briefing by David Cowling who writes that the “incomparable House of Commons Library have produced the following summary of 2011 census data for Manchester Gorton constituency” 52.4% of its residents were “White”; this is the lowest for any constituency in the North West, and the 8th lowest for constituencies across the UK outside London (Slough, Leicester South and Leicester East, Bradford West, Birmingham Perry Bar, Ladywood…

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