Next Prime Minister: Gus O’Donnell at 250/1?

Next Prime Minister: Gus O’Donnell at 250/1?

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Time to think about some contingency planning The last few years have seen a profusion of long-odds political bets come in. When they have, it’s been because the bookies, the punters or both have misread the electorate, the candidate(s) or the process. I think there’s another outside opportunity now. This week’s Budget cannot in any sense be regarded as priming the Conservatives for a snap election. Presumably, Philip Hammond didn’t anticipate quite the reaction to his NIC proposals that did…

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Theresa May should not be allowed to create any new peers until GE2015 expenses fraud allegations have been resolved

Theresa May should not be allowed to create any new peers until GE2015 expenses fraud allegations have been resolved

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CON whistleblowers accuse party of 'huge betrayal' of electorate over GE2015 expenses. Latest from @MichaelLCrick https://t.co/ItYi8ezm5H — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2017 There’s lots of talk that Theresa May is planning to create a big batch of new CON peers to deal with the problems her government is having with the upper house. But let us not forget that the formal investigations by the police and the Electoral Commission are still going into the election expenses in key marginals…

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Now betting opens on whether the self employed NI increase will happen

Now betting opens on whether the self employed NI increase will happen

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William Hill have opened a market on the Chancellor’s controversial National Insurance increase for the self-employed – and are offering odds of 6/4 (40% chance of happening) that the new NIC rise WILL be implemented this year – and 1/ 2 that it will NOT be. ‘The adverse reaction to this issue appears to have taken Mr Hammond and Mrs May by surprise and there is speculation that it could be delayed and/or scrapped’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe. However,…

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LAB moves to 19% deficit with YouGov, drops vote share in all latest by-elections & loses seat to CON

LAB moves to 19% deficit with YouGov, drops vote share in all latest by-elections & loses seat to CON

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After budget debacle, Tories slump to er… 19-point lead, highest in government for 30 yearshttps://t.co/Da8rb748dG pic.twitter.com/aH69ITa2Mf — Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) March 10, 2017 Tonight's results: one Con gain from Lab, one Con gain from UKIP, one LDem gain from Con, two Con holds. https://t.co/Q1lXVZh7PI pic.twitter.com/LNNipm8SFb — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) March 10, 2017 The Corbyn leadership disaster continues The first full post budget voting intention poll is out and YouGov in the Times finds the Tories extending the lead to 19%…

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The first electoral test following the budget – tonight’s local by-elections

The first electoral test following the budget – tonight’s local by-elections

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The by-elections held today are the first electoral test of the Budget announced yesterday. Here, for reference, is what happened after the 2016 Budget: Budget Local By-Elections 2016: March 17th 2016 Lincolnshire Independents GAIN Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell on North Kesteven from Conservative on a 44% swing from Conservative to Lincolnshire Independents Liberal Democrat GAIN Aylsham on Broadland from Conservative on a 5.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat Conservative HOLD Hutton on Redcar and Cleveland on a…

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Maybe next time the Tories will have to emulate the GE2015 EdStone to show they’ll honour manifesto commitments

Maybe next time the Tories will have to emulate the GE2015 EdStone to show they’ll honour manifesto commitments

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OmNICshambles, like the LDs tuition fees pledge, will be remembered The Chancellor, Philip Hammond, has been in full defensive mode as he has sought to fight off the criticism that his National Insurance changes for the self-employed are in breach of a GE2015 Conservative manifesto pledge. His responses that this just applied to one form of NIC charges really didn’t resonate and he’d be well advised to find another way of dealing with the attacks. What is surprising is that…

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The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Northern Ireland election fallout, LAB leadership polling, & budget reaction

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Northern Ireland election fallout, LAB leadership polling, & budget reaction

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1) Part one: Keiran speaks to Mick Fealty of Sluggerotoole.com about what we learned from last week’s elections in Northern Ireland, who the winners and losers were and what happens next… 2) Part two: Keiran discusses this week’s polling of Labour members conducted by YouGov on behalf of Ian Warren at Election Data. Keiran is joined by Laurence Janta-Lipinski and Emma Bean to discuss how vulnerable Corbyn is and who might lead Labour into 2020 if he stands down. The…

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If the opposition leader wasn’t so feeble May/Hammond would find it harder to ignore specific manifesto commitments

If the opposition leader wasn’t so feeble May/Hammond would find it harder to ignore specific manifesto commitments

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The 2017 version of the pasty tax? At GE2015, less than two years ago, the Conservative made a very specific pledge – if elected there would be no increase in VAT, National Insurance Contributions or income tax. Well today’s big budget announcement from the Chancellor that the self-employed are going to see the NI contributions going up is going to be a hard one to explain and we’ve already seen the start of a storm brewing. One section of the…

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