The UKIP meltdown continues with Diane James, the last elected leader, quitting the party

The UKIP meltdown continues with Diane James, the last elected leader, quitting the party

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29% of those who’ve served as UKIP MEPs since 2009 have either been expelled or quit This afternoon’s big news from UKIP has been that Diane James, who won the November leadership contest only to pull out after 18 days, has now quit the party. She wants to remain as an MEP and is hoping to sit as an independent. She came to the forefront in February 2013, when she got very close in the Eastleigh by-election beating the Tories…

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Punters remain solidly behind Zac to hold onto Richmond Park

Punters remain solidly behind Zac to hold onto Richmond Park

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The chart above based on Betfair prices shows Zac Goldsmith holding on well in the betting at least in the Richmond Park by-election which was caused by his resignation as a CON MP in protest at the government’s decision to go ahead with the Heathrow expansion. The Lib Dems have chucked absolutely everything at this and so far at least punters have not been impressed. If the yellows were able to create a swing as the 19%+ achieved in Witney…

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Fillon heads for victory and looks set to be the one who’ll fight Marine le Pen to be next French President

Fillon heads for victory and looks set to be the one who’ll fight Marine le Pen to be next French President

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Francois Fillon – the ex-French PM who looks set to fight the the Presidency next April against Marine le Pen pic.twitter.com/azIqkK14Im — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2016 In the betting he’s a 62% chance He’s still to beat Juppe in next Sunday’s runoff

In today’s unique national primary French Republicans are voting on who’ll be the one to take on Marine Le Pen

In today’s unique national primary French Republicans are voting on who’ll be the one to take on Marine Le Pen

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The 2017 French Presidential election now the biggest political betting market There’s a unique election taking place in France today with members of the public who declare themselves to be Republican party supporters able to vote in a national primary to decide who’ll be the flag-carrier next April. The rules of the primary are straightforward. If no contender secures 50% of the vote today then the top two will fight again in a runoff next week. This is exactly the…

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Worried about BREXIT – fear no more. Tony Blair is coming to the rescue

Worried about BREXIT – fear no more. Tony Blair is coming to the rescue

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And he’s said to be ready to team up with George Osborne Hard to know what to make of the above story in today’s Sunday Times about Labour’s most successful leader in terms of winning elections. Whatever your view Blair he was an immense political figure and clearly has been looking for a role in the UK nine years after he stepped down as PM and quit as an MP. But quite what he is able to do now and…

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Some more bad polling for Labour, its leader and shadow chancellor

Some more bad polling for Labour, its leader and shadow chancellor

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New Opinium pollCON 41% +1LAB 29% -3UKIP 12%LD 7% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2016 Another polling blow for LAB on the economy this time from Opinium for ObserverTrust inCorbyn /McDonnell 18%May/Hammond 44% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2016 As each month goes by the next election gets closer

Five months after the vote and BREXIT is as divisive an issue as ever

Five months after the vote and BREXIT is as divisive an issue as ever

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Very few referendum voters have changed their minds As we get closer to the PM’s target invoke Article 50 date of March 31st we are going to get a lot more polling like that above. The fact is that the June 23rd outcome was very close, LEAVE chalked up 1.89% more than the 50% required for victory, and the nation remains split. The big issue in the next couple of weeks will be the Supreme Court hearing on whether the…

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