Interesting remarks from McCluskey. The dreaded vote of confidence in Corbyns leadership. Why make the remarks now? https://t.co/wBfpwXDUh1 — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) January 1, 2017 Latest betting on whether JC will survive until General Election Corbyn's chances of surviving as leader now rated at 50% on Betfair. pic.twitter.com/Pi0ohuvZ7c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 1, 2017 Tweet
Embed from Getty Images A look at the next US. Secretary of State market by RKRKRK The Betfair market makes Trump’s pick Rex Tillerson an overwhelming favourite at c. 90% to be confirmed by the US Senate. Historically nominees normally make it through – the last Cabinet nominee rejected by the Senate was back in 1989. However nominees also sometimes withdraw from the process- Obama lost 3 nominees that way: Tom Daschle (unpaid taxes), Bill Richardson (investigation for pay-to-play allegations) and…
Why I’m taking the 20/1 on Farage being UKIP leader at the end of 2017 Betway have some specials up on what will happen to UKIP in 2017, the one that caught my attention was Nigel Farage to end 2017 as UKIP leader at 20/1, much like a persistent rash, Nigel Farage regularly returns as the next UKIP leader. Ladbrokes make it 3/1 that Nigel Farage will be the next UKIP leader, so by my reckoning the 20/1 on Farage…
As we approach 2017, Keiran Pedley reviews the winners and losers of the past year and breaks down the 2016 PB/Polling Matters survey results. Earlier this month we conducted the first annual survey of PB readers and Polling Matters listeners. 657 respondents took part and this post looks at some of the results and I give my own perspective too. We asked everyone about their winners and losers of 2016, biggest shocks, defining moments and the thorny issue of the…
There might well be scares but there won’t be shocks Few would have predicted twelve months ago that Donald Trump would be about to be inaugurated, that Theresa May would be prime minister and that Paul Nuttall would be leader of UKIP. Those who did should have cashed in nicely. There were straws in the wind for all of these (though most would have anticipated a change of UKIP leader after a Remain win, not a Leave), but the odds…
2017 will be dominated by Brexit but we shouldn’t lose sight of the real pressures facing our NHS, whatever your politics, writes Keiran Pedley Until 2016, I was typical of many thirty-somethings in that I had little need to see my local GP too often. This year that changed. Due to a recurring issue I found myself having to see the GP more regularly. Nothing critical, I’m fine, but this experience opened my eyes to a real problem and prompted…
What wagers have you got outstanding? At the end of the biggest political betting year ever we’ve still got pile of wagers to be resolved and that won’t happen until midnight tomorrow night. These are ones relating to whether things will or will not happen during 2016. My main one has been on Article 50 not being invoked during 2016 – a bet that saw a fair bit of activity until TMay’s CON conference speech in October when she announced…
For the past few days I’ve watched all ten parts of the “The Crown” – the compelling big budget series from Netflix which centres on the life of the Queen. One you’ve watched the opening minutes of episode one you become hooked and I can heartily recommend it. What makes this particularly appealing from the the political perspective is the portrayal of the monarch’s relations with the prime ministers and the big political developments that it covers. It is written…