Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hanging by a thread.

Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hanging by a thread.

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Embed from Getty Images The case for Scottish Independence is full of holes writes Keiran Pedley but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Since Nicola Sturgeon’s bombshell speech last week, where she indicated her intention to ask for a second referendum on Scottish Independence, the conventional wisdom appears to have been on something of a journey. The original reaction was one of panic. This was it. Just as we all feared, Scotland was heading for Independence as a consequence of…

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The French election looks set to be biggest non-UK/US political betting event ever

The French election looks set to be biggest non-UK/US political betting event ever

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With five weeks to go Macron remains strong odds-on favourite Exactly 5 weeks on from today, on April 23rd, voters in France will participate in the round one of the presidential election and betting interest has been enormous. Currently on the Betfair exchange alone £7.5m of wagers have been matched and looks set to be bettered in size terms only by BREXIT and Trump. Given that the French don’t allow punters to access British online bookmakers while in France then…

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Blindsided. Leavers have given the PM a free rein over the Article 50 negotiations and they’ll come to regret it

Blindsided. Leavers have given the PM a free rein over the Article 50 negotiations and they’ll come to regret it

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Embed from Getty Images From now on Theresa May can ignore Parliament Theresa May has striven mightily at every stage to avoid Parliamentary restraint on her Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU.  She fought in the courts to the bitter end against the principle that the triggering of Article 50 required the prior approval from Parliament.  A White Paper was extracted out of the government in a manner akin to that used by Lord Olivier in Marathon Man. …

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ComRes becomes the 3rd pollster in a week to have UKIP fourth

ComRes becomes the 3rd pollster in a week to have UKIP fourth

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ComRes for Indy and S Mirror CON 42 LAB 25 LD 12 UKIP 10 Over the past week YouGov, Ipsos-MORI and now ComRes have found UKIP in fourth place. Partly this is down to the LDs advancing and partly to UKIP’s shares slipping. LAB, meanwhile is now a colossal 17% behind in very serious trouble indeed. Things don’t look good for Corbyn’s team in the May round of local and Mayoral elections. Since Corbyn was re-elected as leader last September…

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UKIP: circling the whirlpool

UKIP: circling the whirlpool

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How does Nuttall save his party from irrelevance? UKIP was very good for Brexit: if the party had never been created, Britain would almost certainly still be a member of the European Union.* Brexit, by contrast, has been disastrous for UKIP. Stripped of their two greatest assets – their mission and by far their most effective leader – UKIP has struggled since last July to find a purpose or a direction. Compounded by internal divisions, the estrangement of their major…

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Local By-Election Results : March 16th 2017

Local By-Election Results : March 16th 2017

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Warbreck on Blackpool (Con defence, death of sitting member) Result: Conservative 728 (55% +18%), Labour 468 (35% +6%), UKIP 75 (6% -13%), Liberal Democrat 57 (4% -3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 260 (20%) on a swing of 6% from Labour to Conservative Saham Toney on Breckland (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservative 335 (48% -3%), Liberal Democrat 105 (15%, no candidate at last election), Independent 104 (15%, no candidate at last election), UKIP 80 (11% -21%),…

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George Osborne to become editor of the Evening Standard but he’s NOT quitting as an MP

George Osborne to become editor of the Evening Standard but he’s NOT quitting as an MP

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Get ready for a row about MPs 2nd/3rd jobs The man who was publicly sacked when TMay become PM last July has found himself another job – he’s to be editor of the London freebie paper, the Evening Standard. But it has been made clear that the MP for Tatton in Cheshire is to continue in that role – something that is bound to cause controversy. No doubt it will be pointed out that Boris Johnson managed for a time…

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In the absence of evidence Dutch election punters were far too ready to bet on the hard right PVV

In the absence of evidence Dutch election punters were far too ready to bet on the hard right PVV

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The Betfair betting trend chart The final period polling Is this something we should now factor in? On Tuesday morning in his PB review of the betting on the Dutch election Alastair Meeks wrote this: “..should the PVV be odds-on favourites? In my view clearly they shouldn’t. The polls might be wrong or there might be a last minute swing but there is no reason why either of those considerations should necessarily benefit the PVV rather than another party. From…

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