The PB/Polling Matters Podcast: Why Trump won and what’ll he do in his first 100 days

The PB/Polling Matters Podcast: Why Trump won and what’ll he do in his first 100 days

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined once more by White House Correspondent and US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua. Jon-Christopher gives his verdict on why Trump won, what went wrong for the Clinton campaign and what happens next with a specific focus on President Trump’s first 100 days. Later in the show Keiran gives his perspective on what happened with the polls and where pundits went wrong. Follow Keiran at @keiranpedley and Jon-Christopher at @JCBua

The robots are coming

The robots are coming

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A guest slot from CycleFree on globalisation In her Mansion House speech, May said this about those who viewed the forces of globalization (“this agenda as the answer to all our ills””) in a different light to those who promoted it – “These people – often those on modest to low incomes living in rich countries like our own – see their jobs being outsourced and wages undercut.”  She went on: “When you refuse to accept that globalization in its…

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Punters not totally convinced that Theresa will meet her Article 50 time-table

Punters not totally convinced that Theresa will meet her Article 50 time-table

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Betfair punters make it a 54% chance that TMay will invoke Article 50 before end June pic.twitter.com/EyaO01qSvb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2016 The big BREXIT news this morning is that it has been made known that the government has drafted a one line bill as a contingency should the Supreme Court uphold the government’s appeal against TMay’s plan to by-pass parliament and use the Royal Prerogative. The bill is apparently worded in such a manner that the Number…

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If you’re expecting final WH2016 vote totals quickly don’t hold your breath. In 2012 we had to wait till January

If you’re expecting final WH2016 vote totals quickly don’t hold your breath. In 2012 we had to wait till January

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After election night in 2012 Obama was 2% ahead in the popular vote. By January 2013 it reached 3.85% At the 2012 White House Race we had a very special reason on PB to pay close attention to the precise national popular vote numbers in the period after the election. William Hill had offered £1,000 in free bets and the competition was to predict the winning national vote margin to two decimal points. My naive assumption in devising it like…

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Trump card. Shuffling the deck on Brexit

Trump card. Shuffling the deck on Brexit

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Picture: Raheem Kassam’s twitter feed. The tectonic plates are moving, so John Prescott once told us.  Boy have they moved this year: we have seen the most almighty earthquake storm.  What reverberations can we expect for Brexit from the election of Donald Trump?  Is it good news or bad news for Britain? For decades Britain has had a strategy of being a bridge between Europe and the US, through its trading and political links to the EU and its military…

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Just a third of voters tell ICM that they’re happy with “unconditional BREXIT” with the young most opposed

Just a third of voters tell ICM that they’re happy with “unconditional BREXIT” with the young most opposed

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And the oldies seemingly less concerned about “unconditional BREXIT” As we move towards the formal start of the UK’s extraction process there’s going to be a lot of polling like this latest from ICM on voters view the current options. This is a very hard thing to poll on because of the tight-lipped approach by Theresa May who won’t reveal anything except to bosses of big Japanese car manufacturers who employ a lot of people here. Her refusal “to give…

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The New Political Divide, Part III

The New Political Divide, Part III

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Embed from Getty Images   If the first part of this ramble was about the expanse of this divide, and the second wondered what opened it, this is prodding at how deep it runs through society. As political analysts come out of their bunkers try and grapple with what this election really means (beyond the stark fact of President Donald J Trump). We will hear about the need to understand the flyover states, non college-educated whites. Feelings on globalisation and…

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After his Strictly successes it’s hard to imagine Ed Balls not making a return to mainstream politics

After his Strictly successes it’s hard to imagine Ed Balls not making a return to mainstream politics

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He’s now got a great platform – but how is he going to use it? One of the great distractions this autumn has been the extraordinary run that ex-LAB cabinet minister and shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, has had on Strictly. I don’t follow the show myself but every weekend I’ve been hunting out the video clips of his Saturday night performances which have been stunning. Ed’s now built up a public persona that is so different from his days in…

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