It has been an extraordinary 24 hours on the betting markets for the French presidency. Everything was hinged on a planned statement that the Republican nominee and one time odds-on favourite, Fillon, had announced he was going to make yesterday evening.
His campaign has been troubled for weeks by the investigation into payments of public money made to his British wife in what has become known as Penelopegate.
It had been thought that with the police investigation getting tighter that he would quit the race causing a large amount of activity on Juppe who it was assumed would take his place.
It was widely thought that Juppe, who had a more centrist appeal, would be a tougher challenge for Macron, to face than the right wing Fillon.
So all the money started going on Juppe with suggestions that if Fillon did pull out then he could be favourite.
It was not to be. Fillon announced that he was not standing down.
The assumption is that the young independent, Macron, will have an easier time making the top two in the first round of voting against Fillon than Juppe. So the Fillon decision has boosted Macron.
On current polling Macron has a clear second round, lead against Le Pen. The final round takes place on Sun May 7th three days after the English local and Mayoral elections as well, it is being assumed, the Manchester Gorton by-election
Based on the surveys we have at the moment it’s clear that Le Pen looks set to win the first round but that she will struggle in the second.