For first time since being sacked after getting GE2005 spot on NOP (now GfK) is back doing UK political polls

For first time since being sacked after getting GE2005 spot on NOP (now GfK) is back doing UK political polls

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UK Polling Report Welcome back – you’ve been missed One of the great jokes whenever people interested in polling have met in recent years is that is the person from NOP (now GfK) popping up to remind to remind us that the firm in its last published political poll got the outcome of the 2005 general election absolutely right. For whatever reason the Independent, which had commissioned the firm decided, to switch pollsters after 2005 and since then GfK has…

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If they hadn’t have gone into coalition the LDs would likely have been favourites in Manchester Gorton

If they hadn’t have gone into coalition the LDs would likely have been favourites in Manchester Gorton

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But at GE2015 the yellows came in 5th losing their deposit Although the arrival of George Galloway in the Manchester Gorton race has caused a tightening of the Lib Dem odds the position is nothing like as strong as it would have been if the party had not gone onto the Coalition with the Conservatives in 2010. The chart above shows the extraordinary strength the party had in ward elections in the constituency in the period between the Iraq war…

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Politics in a democratic one party state

Politics in a democratic one party state

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  Aged 69, Seneca the Younger had spent many years in the service of the Emperor Nero, but suspecting him of treason, the Emperor ordered him to commit suicide.  Seneca cut open the arteries of his own arms and the veins of his legs and knees, but his blood flowed slowly and his death did not come quickly.   To hasten the process, he drank poison, but still death eluded him.  Finally he was carried into a hot bath and suffocated…

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If this is accurate, then you might wish to update your Trump impeachment, conviction, resignation, and exit date betting

If this is accurate, then you might wish to update your Trump impeachment, conviction, resignation, and exit date betting

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(THREAD) BREAKING: Harvard professor and @CNN political analyst Juliette Kayyem says, per sources, Michael Flynn may have flipped on Trump. pic.twitter.com/kkG4h4gqvw — Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) March 25, 2017 (1) First, as an attorney I want to make clear that, if this @CNN analyst's sources are correct, the #Russiagate scandal is blown wide open. — Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) March 25, 2017 (2) The FBI flips witnesses, turning them into cooperating individuals, _only_ when they can help secure conviction of a bigger…

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New poll finds increasing support for a second referendum with 66% of REMAIN voters now wanting one

New poll finds increasing support for a second referendum with 66% of REMAIN voters now wanting one

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Via @JamesPurefoy a pic from the anti-BREXIT march and a reminder to put your clocks forward tonight pic.twitter.com/FbAkXAIccA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2017 But overall most of those sampled continue to be against Keiran Pedley looks at new poll numbers from the Polling Matters / Opinium series ahead of the Prime Minister invoking Article 50 this week. Listeners to this week’s (revamped) PB/Polling Matters podcast (see below) will know that we have a new survey out this week….

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UKIP drops to ZERO MPs following Carswell’s decision to leave the party

UKIP drops to ZERO MPs following Carswell’s decision to leave the party

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In happier times – Farage with his CON defector in 2014 But no by-election, he’ll remain in Commons as an independent This lunchtime’s announcement from Douglas Carswell, the MP for Clacton, that he’s to leave UKIP is hardly a surprise. He had been largely detached from the party for months and and it really became a question of not if he would leave the purples but when. He always appeared uncomfortable with UKIP’s emphasis on immigration and campaigned in the…

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Even at only 1/2, Macron remains the value bet

Even at only 1/2, Macron remains the value bet

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The centrist looks close to home and hosed right now France is no stranger to revolutions. It’s therefore hardly surprising that there’s a ready temptation – particularly after the Brexit vote in the UK and Trump’s election in the US – to seek both contemporary and historic parallels in the possibility of a Le Pen victory in May. Indeed, it’s so tempting that the odds have come quite out of line with the real chances. There are only two simple…

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Local By-Election Review March 2017

Local By-Election Review March 2017

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Higher Croft on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence, death of sitting member) Result: Labour 446 (58% +12%), United Kingdom Independence Party 190 (25% -8%), Conservative 133 (17% -4%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 256 (33%) on a swing of 10% from UKIP to Lab However, late yesterday afternoon it was discovered that the Labour candidate should not have been nominated as he was employed by an organisation that Blackburn with Darwen council have a material interest in, therefore the…

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