The centrist looks close to home and hosed right now France is no stranger to revolutions. It’s therefore hardly surprising that there’s a ready temptation – particularly after the Brexit vote in the UK and Trump’s election in the US – to seek both contemporary and historic parallels in the possibility of a Le Pen victory in May. Indeed, it’s so tempting that the odds have come quite out of line with the real chances. There are only two simple…
Higher Croft on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence, death of sitting member) Result: Labour 446 (58% +12%), United Kingdom Independence Party 190 (25% -8%), Conservative 133 (17% -4%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 256 (33%) on a swing of 10% from UKIP to Lab However, late yesterday afternoon it was discovered that the Labour candidate should not have been nominated as he was employed by an organisation that Blackburn with Darwen council have a material interest in, therefore the…
Over the last few months, as those who follow the site will know, I have been writing posts and tweets about the YouGov Brexit tracker which come which comes out two or three times a month. The actual question is “In hindsight do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?” The overall picture is that the gap between those who think the outcome was wrong has and those right has narrowed and for the…
On this week’s new (revamped) episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran touches briefly on the shocking events of this week before being joined by Leo Barasi and Rob Vance to discuss the latest polling data and elections news. Keiran unveils new Polling Matters / Opinium polling on whether there should be a second EU referendum with changes that might surprise you, Leo explains why he thinks there will not be a snap election (although Keiran argues May is…
Yesterday, Westminster was attacked. If the aim was to stop democracy, then it clearly failed. Higher Croft on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 45, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 26) Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 1,283 (46%), United Kingdom Independence Party 927 (33%), Conservative 570 (21%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 28,522 (44%) LEAVE 36,799 (56%) on a turnout of 65% Candidates…
Macron remains the strong odds-on favourite in France LAB eases a touch in Gorton but still very strong favourite Punters think Trump’s got a 50% chance of NOT completing first term Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
The YouGov tracker is not shifting either way If the Prime Minister was hoping that the ending of the parliamentary approval process for Article 50 would swing opinion more behind the move then she is going to be disappointed. The latest YouGov tracker came out shortly before the Westminster terror attack and as can be seen in the chart the country is still totally divided on whether it is a good thing or a bad thing. There’s been very little…
We do know that a policemen was killed bringing current death toll to 2