What ‘good’ will look like for the parties in this year’s May elections

What ‘good’ will look like for the parties in this year’s May elections

Who should win what, and what will the misses and bonuses mean? The expectations game is an unavoidable part of politics and one that pundits and practitioners play with relish. It is, of course, such an intrinsic part of betting that it’s difficult to meaningfully isolate betting from expectations. There are more direct practical consequences of how a party performs against expectations. It’s one thing to lose seats; it’s another to lose more than people expect – or, for that…

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Latest locals: CON gains from LAB in Middlesbrough but makes heavy weather against the Greens in Dorset

Latest locals: CON gains from LAB in Middlesbrough but makes heavy weather against the Greens in Dorset

Coulby Newham on Middlesbrough (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservatives 501 (38% +12%), Labour 468 (35% -3%), Independent 318 (24% +1%), Green Party 32 (2%, no candidate at last election) Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 33 (3%) on a swing of 7.5% from Lab to Con Piddle Valley on West Dorset (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservative 303 (61% -8%), Green Party 195 (39% +19%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 108 (22%)…

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The latest French Presidential betting has Marine Le Pen with an 87% chance of making it to the final two

The latest French Presidential betting has Marine Le Pen with an 87% chance of making it to the final two

But who will join her? With the French presidential election moving into the final two weeks I thought it might be useful to look at the betting by concentrating on who will make it to the final two. That runoff election takes places a fortnight later on the Sunday after British locals. There are lively betting markets on the first round of the election and I have taken the latest chances based on the Betfair Exchange for my chart above….

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Local By-Election Previews : Maundy Thursday 2017 (T -3 weeks until Locals 2017)

Local By-Election Previews : Maundy Thursday 2017 (T -3 weeks until Locals 2017)

  Coulby Newham on Middlesbrough (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 33, Independents 9, Conservatives 4 (Labour majority of 20) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,464, 1,291, 1,079 (38%) Conservative 996 (26%) Independents 893, 762, 758 (23%) Liberal Democrat 524 (14%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 21,181 (34%) LEAVE 40,177 (66%) on a turnout of 65% Candidates duly nominated: Emma Alberti (Green), Mike Allen (Ind), Annalise…

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The nearer you are to Russia the greater you attach to the importance of NATO

The nearer you are to Russia the greater you attach to the importance of NATO

This could be a growing issue in many countries Well done to YouGov for putting together this cross comparison of view of NATO in a range of different countries. This body which has remained intact since 1949 and has played a key part in many counties security since that time. But political considerations are changing and we cannot assume that things will continue as they are. No doubt the weakening of this alliance is a key objective for Mr. Putin…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast: The LD fight back and where they go next + the latest Ashcroft poll

This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast: The LD fight back and where they go next + the latest Ashcroft poll

  On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Leo is joined by Lib Dem writer and campaign strategist Mark Pack to discuss the Lib Dem fightback and the new Polling Matters / Opinium survey on the party’s prospects. The Lib Dems seem to be recovering in the polls, but how high can they go, where should they look for new voters, should they change leader and can they win the Gorton by-election?  Later in the show, Leo and Mark discuss the…

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The LDs go for the jugular against Corbyn in Manchester Gorton

The LDs go for the jugular against Corbyn in Manchester Gorton

Brutal Lib Dem leaflet for Manchester Gorton by-election. pic.twitter.com/VUQq3zS23E — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) April 12, 2017 An attack also designed for Remainers Above is a brutal Lib Dem leaflet that is going out in Manchester Gorton where the by-election takes places on May 4th. The party which used to hold all but two of the council seats in the seat believes it is in with good chance of getting a good result and is throwing a lot at the campaign….

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Trump’s first electoral test sees the Republicans holding on in Kansas with a majority down 20%

Trump’s first electoral test sees the Republicans holding on in Kansas with a majority down 20%

GOP holds on in Kansas by-election in President Trump's 1st electoral test. Maj down from 27% to 7.2% https://t.co/pSBHzlzf8V pic.twitter.com/nvPaHl9YFv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 12, 2017 The margin down from 27% to 7.2% If the Democrats are to make a dent on the Republican following last year’s presidential election then they are going to need to make 24 gains which would take away the GOP majority in Congress. An opportunity arose last night with a by-election in a Kansas…

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