If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next President of France

If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next President of France

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Latest Macron-Le Pen polling Latest Macron-Fillon polling Latest Macron-Melenchon polling The above tables from the excellent Wikipedia round up of French polls tell a consistent story – whoever of those closest on the first round ends up fighting Macron then the young independent looks set to be the winner. Melenchon is the only one of the serious contenders who consistently gets into the 40s in hypothetical match-ups against Macron. Fillon fares worst with Le Pen in the middle. The big…

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Fillon moves to second favourite in the French race after new poll has him within a point of Le Pen

Fillon moves to second favourite in the French race after new poll has him within a point of Le Pen

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The battle for France is a four horse race #presitrack 17/04MLP 22% (-1)EM 22% (=)FF 21% (+1)JLM 18% (+1)BH 8% (-1)@LesEchos @ORPI_France @radioclassique https://t.co/7ux5fUL7f6 pic.twitter.com/cvdDDGqL8g — OpinionWay (@opinionway) April 17, 2017 Fillon moves to second favourite in the French race after new poll has him within a point of Le Pen pic.twitter.com/tc1Bes3ocD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2017

The canvas data that proved to be spot on in Richmond suggests Labour could be in trouble in Manchester Gorton

The canvas data that proved to be spot on in Richmond suggests Labour could be in trouble in Manchester Gorton

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At Richmond Park the LD numbers understated their position For all the speculation on Labour’s polling collapse there’s only one thing that really matters – how the party performs in actual elections and the first real test of that is May 4th which includes, of course, the Manchester Gorton by-election where they are defending a majority of 24k. On the face of it Gorton looks impregnable but is it? The Lib Dems have published their latest canvas data for the…

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Another day, another 21% poll lead for the Tories, this time with YouGov

Another day, another 21% poll lead for the Tories, this time with YouGov

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New @YouGov @thetimes poll Con 44 (+2) Lab 23 (-2) Lib Dems 12 (+1) UKIP 10 (-1)https://t.co/xyWwshHpSJ — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2017 .@YouGov @thetimes The LD have climbed back to 12%, their equal best level of public support this parliament, which they matched once before in December — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2017 For those of us who thought 25% was Labour’s floor, we might need to start re-evaluating our assumptions. Surely Labour and Corbyn can’t carry on like…

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If you fancy a 16% return in just over eight months, this might be the bet for you

If you fancy a 16% return in just over eight months, this might be the bet for you

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William Hill have a market up on whether John Bercow will be Speaker until 2018. Ordinarily I’m not in favour of backing 1/6 shots, but given that the much hyped attempt by Tory MP James Dudderidge to topple Speaker Bercow turned out to be a bit Spursy* as only five MPs sign motion of no confidence in John Bercow. From that I can conclude there’s no appetite, let alone a majority, in The Commons to topple John Bercow, so I’d expect…

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Polling Matters on the Lib Dem fightback – how high can their support go as the party of Remain?

Polling Matters on the Lib Dem fightback – how high can their support go as the party of Remain?

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Leo Barasi talked about the Lib Dem fightback with Mark Pack, a campaign strategist and expert on the party. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here. The SNP lost a referendum and won a landslide. Could the Lib Dems do something similar by becoming the party of Remain voters? This week’s PB/Polling Matters Opinium poll suggests the party could do well with a relentless focus on stopping Brexit. But it…

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Dissecting Theresa May’s popularity and you find out she has the potential to be Gordon Brown Mark II

Dissecting Theresa May’s popularity and you find out she has the potential to be Gordon Brown Mark II

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This week YouGov released some fascinating polling on Theresa May and her popularity. As we can see from the above chart it helps explains why Mrs May has such a colossal lead over Jeremy Corbyn on who would make the best Prime Minister and why if Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader at the next general election, the 2020 general election is going to be the electoral equivalent of the Anglo-Zanzibar war. But is her popularity down to Mrs May not…

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Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes, up 4% in month

Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes, up 4% in month

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  Tories take 21% lead with @ComResPolls poll for Sunday Mirror/Independent Con 46 (+4) Lab 25 (nc) LD 11 (-1) UKIP 9 (-1) Greens 4 (nc) — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 15, 2017 This ComRes poll indicates Labour are headed for the mother of all beatings at the next general election. Surely with 20% plus leads Labour members will come to their senses and ditch the electoral liability that is is Corbyn Which might explain the support for a new centre…

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