UKIP’s collapse gives huge boost to CON in Wales. Now 10% ahead

UKIP’s collapse gives huge boost to CON in Wales. Now 10% ahead

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The blues heads for top Welsh party for first time since 1850 The sheer scale of the disaster facing Corbyn’s Labour is brought home in the latest YouGov Welsh poll for Cardiff University and ITV. The figures are in the chart. The Welsh academic and leading authority on Welsh politics, Prof Roger Scully, comments: “Only one poll this century (in July 2009, at the very nadir of Gordon Brown’s fortunes as Prime Minister) has had Labour lower in Wales during…

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Less than a week after Mrs. May’s GE2017 announcement YouGov’s Brexit “right/wrong” tracker moves to level-pegging

Less than a week after Mrs. May’s GE2017 announcement YouGov’s Brexit “right/wrong” tracker moves to level-pegging

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It did have Brexit “right” 4% ahead Given the overwhelming importance of the Brexit negotiations in Mrs May’s stated reason for the early General Election then it is important to continue to follow how voters now view that decision last June. The one regular tracking poll on this is the YouGov question featured above and as can be seen the split has been fairly stable since the first poll to take place shortly after Theresa May entered number 10 Downing…

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The geography of Emmanuel Macron’s first round victory

The geography of Emmanuel Macron’s first round victory

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So Le Pen isn’t going to be another Trump As it has turned out the polling in the French presidential election has proved to be pretty accurate. Macron has, as I write, 23.9% of the first round votes with Le Pen on 21.4%. The Betfair exchange betting now splits 88% to Macron with to 12% Marine Le Pen. It is now very hard to envisage the circumstances that have anybody other than the young former investment banker as the next…

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Exit poll says Macron and Le Pen make it into round two.

Exit poll says Macron and Le Pen make it into round two.

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?? #Presidentielle2017 ? Estimation Ipsos / @SopraSteria_fr à 20h du classement des candidats lors de ce premier tour pic.twitter.com/o6T4qBMGSq — Ipsos France (@IpsosFrance) April 23, 2017 Looks like the French have lost that lovin’ Fillon But given that both François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are fewer than 2 points behind Le Pen, and we’ve not had any votes counted yet, don’t start spending winnings yet or write off those losses. Though if this exit poll is accurate I expect Macron to win…

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Are radical policies the answer to Labour’s slump?

Are radical policies the answer to Labour’s slump?

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Leo Barasi talked about the state of the parties and the race ahead with Conor Pope of Progress and political consultant Laurence Janta-Lipinksi. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here. Despite using Easter to announce several policies, Labour is making little effort to pretend it knows what it would do with power. The party’s website still invites visitors to “help shape our next manifesto” and Corbyn semi-loyalist Dawn Butler suggested…

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Marine Le Pen’s best chance of becoming President of France is if she faces Fillon in the 2nd round

Marine Le Pen’s best chance of becoming President of France is if she faces Fillon in the 2nd round

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Head to head: Fillon-LePen Head to head: Melenchon-LePen Head to head: Macron-LePen Today the people of France are going to the polls in the first round of the Presidential Election. The polling stations close at 1900 BST and we should get the first exit polls shortly afterwards. If the exit polling is close then we might see some delay before any figures are published. Unlike the UK where there is one single exit poll in France several media outlets have…

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Why a 1997 style landslide or even a 1983 style landslide might not happen, but maybe a 2005 style majority of 66 could

Why a 1997 style landslide or even a 1983 style landslide might not happen, but maybe a 2005 style majority of 66 could

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Judging by the polls, the political mood, the intuition of most political watchers, and pretty much everyone in the country, sans the Corbynites, are expecting Mrs May’s Tories to win so comprehensively the only thing in doubt is which three figure number will be the size of the Tory majority, but today I’ll explain why that might be wrong, and why Mrs May could end up with just a modest double digit majority. But here are the reasons why I…

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Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most incredible polling night I can ever remember

Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most incredible polling night I can ever remember

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  New ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror: HIGHEST TORY VOTE SHARE SINCE JAN 1991 Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2) — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) April 22, 2017 ComRes for Sunday Mirror: T May has higher best PM rating than Corbyn, Farron & Nuttall combined — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) April 22, 2017 If this poll is as wrong in the other direction as the polls in 2015, 1992 and 1970 *put together*, Tories still have more seats than Labour…

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