So Le Pen isn’t going to be another Trump
As it has turned out the polling in the French presidential election has proved to be pretty accurate. Macron has, as I write, 23.9% of the first round votes with Le Pen on 21.4%.
The Betfair exchange betting now splits 88% to Macron with to 12% Marine Le Pen.
It is now very hard to envisage the circumstances that have anybody other than the young former investment banker as the next president of France.
What is striking about the Wikipedia map of how individual parts of France voted is the East-West divide with the former departments more likely to go for Le Pen.
As a betting event this has been huge even though French law makes it very difficult for those inside France to bet with online British bookmakers. This suggests a huge interest in this election in the UK.
The final round of voting takes place on May 7th three days after the British local elections which could provide a good guide to the general election on June 8th.
The polls have been proved very right in France – is that going to be the experience here or is Nate Silver right about his criticism of British polling?