PB/Polling Matters podcast: Is a Tory landslide inevitable? And Vive le pollsters!

PB/Polling Matters podcast: Is a Tory landslide inevitable? And Vive le pollsters!

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  On this week’s podcast Keiran returns and is joined by Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia. Keiran and Chris celebrate the excellent performance of French pollsters last weekend and discuss the implications of Macron and Le Pen making the second round. Is a Macron victory now inevitable? What happens next and would a British version of ‘En Marche’ be successful? Keiran and Chris also discuss the seeming inevitability of a Conservative landslide in June and what might…

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We’ve moved sharply on from when class was the best pointer to voting intention

We’ve moved sharply on from when class was the best pointer to voting intention

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Now age, education and gender give a better guide This afternoon YouGov has published a series of charts to give us an idea about the electorate who will vote on June 8th. This will be the first election since analysis became possible when class was far less important. Age education and to an extent gender now the key measures as the charts demonstrate. Labour’s problem is that under Mr. Corbyn the working classes have ceased to support the party that…

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The first phone poll of the campaign has UKIP down to 4% and the Tories at 49%

The first phone poll of the campaign has UKIP down to 4% and the Tories at 49%

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Another indicator of a CON landslide This morning, in the London Evening Standard, we have the first telephone poll of the general election campaign. The figures are very much in line with the other polls that we’ve seen in the last week. The striking number in this latest is the UKIP share down to just 4% which I think the lowest share that the party has had in years. Clearly the main feature of this campaign has been Labour’s inability…

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Why we are all going to be able to get to bed earlier this election night

Why we are all going to be able to get to bed earlier this election night

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No simultaneous elections on June 8th means speedier counts One of the features of the June 8th General Election it is that no other elections are being held on the same day. This is in sharp comparison to all the general elections since 1992 when John Major went to the country in April four weeks before that year’s locals. This is important because it should have a big impact on the time it takes for the counts to proceed. If…

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Labour’s May 4th prospects are looking appalling in England, Wales and Scotland

Labour’s May 4th prospects are looking appalling in England, Wales and Scotland

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And UKIP are in for a pounding as well UKIP’s set to have more losses that its actually contesting Today I have been in London for the annual local elections briefing organised by the Political Studies Association. The panelists were Professors Colin Rawlings and Michael Thrasher for England with Rodger Scully for Wales and Professor John Curtice for Scotland. Rawlings and Thrasher focused on their by-election prediction model which just covers England and suggested that there’s a possibility that Labour…

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Riding the surge. Betting on a Conservative landslide

Riding the surge. Betting on a Conservative landslide

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If the polls are to be believed, the Conservatives are in for a spectacular night on 8 June.  ICM, YouGov and ComRes are all reporting national leads of more than 20% for the Conservatives – YouGov and ICM three times in the last week.  Labour seem in disarray, with the gaffes and questionable decisions coming in fast and thick.  Their morale is on the floor, with Labour MPs openly refusing to endorse Jeremy Corbyn for next Prime Minister.  There is…

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First wave of French second round polling gives it to Macron by 20% or more

First wave of French second round polling gives it to Macron by 20% or more

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Wikipedia Betting on last Sunday’s winner looks like free money After Sunday’s first round of voting in France all eyes are now on the second round that takes place on Sunday May 7th. Hypothetical matchups before Sunday had shown that Macron would have a big lead. The first post 2nd round polls, the ones featured above, still have him with a big margin but nothing like on the scale of what we were seeing before Sunday. This reflects the very…

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Farage might be giving GE2017 a miss but expect to see him on many leaflets

Farage might be giving GE2017 a miss but expect to see him on many leaflets

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The first week of the general election campaign has been characterised by the huge move to CON in the polls and also the number of big names who would have let it be known that they are leaving the political scene. What is also becoming striking is that UKIP is mounting nothing like a campaign that we have seen in the past. The party’s made it clear that it will not stand against strongly leave CON MPs and we’ve seen…

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